Bougainville-Papua New Guinea: Bougainville will maintain pressure to complete independence moderation with the PNG Government by July 2025

Initial moderation talks to finalise Bougainville independence were held between Bougainville and PNG leaders over 17-19 March. During a 2019 non-binding referendum, 97% of the Bougainville population voted for independence. PNG Minister for Bougainville Affairs, Mannasseh Makiba, stated that the PNG Government is awaiting the moderation process outcomes before holding a parliamentary vote to endorse the referendum. PNG Prime Minister, James Marape, also mentioned during the talks that Bougainville must disarm and become economically self-sustaining before independence. On 11 March, immediately prior to the talks, Bougainville leaders issued a statement recommending that independence take effect on 1 September 2027. Minister Makiba acknowledged this announcement indicated Bougainville’s frustration with the lack of movement in the PNG Government toward independence. Further moderation talks will take place and conclude in June, before the independent international moderator issues findings by the end of July 2025.

Assessment: Bougainville will continue initiatives and statements during the moderation talks to pressure PNG into parliamentary endorsement of the referendum findings. A Bougainville general election is scheduled for September 2025, which is driving Bougainville leaders to maintain the moderation timeline and seek concrete outcomes. Other perceived national priorities have likely led to the enduring PNG Government delays. Economic viability and privately owned firearms are not significant obstacles to justify a continued delay and will almost certainly be resolved during moderation. Bougainville leadership has previously acknowledged the need to boost economic activity, which has seen significant mining deals being recently entered into - measures to attract economic investment will almost certainly continue during the lead up to independence.

Sources: Scott Waide, “Bougainville Leaders’ Forum Recommends September 2027 for Independence,” RNZ, May 6, 2024; Scott Waide and Don Wiseman, “Big Hopes Pinned on PNG-Bougainville Moderation Talks Next Week,” RNZ, May 9, 2024; “Bougainville President: Papua New Guinea Must Endorse Independence Referendum,” RNZ, May 13, 2024; “Bougainville Reacts to Continued Delays in Independence Talks,” Pacific Beat, ABC Radio Australia, May 17, 2024; Don Wiseman, “PNG and Bougainville to Hold More Talks on Independence Issue,” RNZ, May 20, 2024; “Bougainville Landowners Sign Deal for Planned Mine Exploration,” RNZ, May 27, 2024;  “Canadian Miner Granted Five-Year Exploration Licence in Bougainville,” RNZ, September 18, 2024.