South Pacific Insights
Headline summaries on stability, security, and foreign influence developments across the South Pacific.
Full assessments, implications, and archive access are available to members.
Stability Watch
Update 19 May 2026: Solomon Islands has changed to decreasing following the peaceful resolution of the motion of no confidence. However, it remains at medium due to the major disruption and displacement from TC Maila in the western provinces.
Stability Watch assesses the level of threat to stability on a five point scale from very low to extreme, and the direction of trend through increasing, steady, or decreasing. It monitors politics, security, and resilience.
Description and assessment on the current drivers of instability and trend indicators are available to all members.
Updated: 19 May 2026
Latest Reporting
Resilience Snapshot
Updated: 19 May 2026
Regional Fuel Situation
The regional fuel situation has been updated to reflect the 3 tier Alert Level system adopted by several Pacific Island governments.
Key Current Assessments:
Supply is largely stable across the Pacific. Increasing cost is the major concern, with most territories seeking to reduce the impact of price increases through targeted subsidies, including enhanced price controls.
On 8 May, Pacific Islands Forum Leaders invoked the Biketawa Declaration to support a coordinated regional response, including establishing a Task Force to monitor and provide technical advice. A special session of the Forum Officials Committee will take place in May, followed by a Special Session of Forum Foreign Ministers. Collective purchasing and distribution have been raised as further aims.
Around 6 May, the Asian Development Bank announced support for urgent Pacific fuel needs and longer-term power generation diversification. Australia has also committed AUD$30 million in budgetary support to Fiji.
Updated: 19 May 2026
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22 April - 5 May 2026
Bougainville:
Government highly likely to negotiate on behalf of mine operator to resolve landowner dispute
Solomon Islands:
New Commissioner very likely to privately favour China over traditional partners
Opposition likely to win motion of no confidence on 7 May
Vanuatu:
Government intervention unlikely to contain transport operator grievances
Fiji:
Increased tempo of military and police counter-drug operations almost certain to continue over the next four weeks
Niue:
Cost of living not a significant driver for change in general election
Region:
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues.
98 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
8-21 April 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Junior PNGDF soldiers highly likely to protest investigation findings if no consequences for senior ranks over recruitment corruption.
Solomon Islands:
Despite delay sought with appeal, PM Manele unlikely to retain power if parliament convenes in near-term.
Periodic strikes likely to occur unless TDP delivers a credible settlement.
New Caledonia:
Progress on political future unlikely until after provincial elections to be held before 28 June.
Vanuatu:
Authorities likely limiting protest activity to contain rising economic dissatisfaction, rather than fuel-specific concerns.
Fiji:
Change in RFMF's support role to Police unlikely following death in custody.
Region:
Dengue risk increase in multiple countries over coming months.
79 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
25 March - 7 April 2026
West Papua:
Latest attack and Indonesian security operation a symptom of ongoing escalation rather than a trigger.
Papua New Guinea:
Government intervention averts service disruption amid compounding health crises.
Solomon Islands:
Opposition has the initiative, favourable court ruling highly likely to boost motion of no confidence, whereas delay will favour Prime Minister Manele.
New Caledonia:
Progress or pause on New Caledonia’s political future to be decided at Prime Minister’s meeting beginning 7 April.
Vanuatu:
Government pursues maximal assistance while attempting to maintain fragile diplomatic neutrality.
Threat from multiple natural disasters decreasing.
Region:
63 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
11-24 March 2026
Bougainville:
Bougainville almost certain to maintain September 2027 independence timeline amid PNG political delays
Solomon Islands:
Prime Minister highly likely to continue parliament delay to secure majority ahead of motion of no confidence.
New Caledonia:
Local election results indicate underwhelming support for pro-independence FLNKS negotiating position.
Fiji:
New Police and cybersecurity strategies consistent with ongoing National Security Strategy
Region:
Cybersecurity weaknesses continue to drive ransomware surge across Pacific Islands
59 other security related activities in-brief since 27 January 2026
25 February - 10 March 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Opportunistic and localised raids likely to increase at remote airports
Solomon Islands:
New Chinatown police post allows China Police Liaison Team to influence local police operations and priorities
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence FLNKS likely focused on local elections and 31 March Paris vote
Vanuatu:
Government demonstrates readiness to manage ongoing Ambae volcanic activity
Fiji:
International and commercial assistance highly likely required should purchase of RFMF surveillance aircraft go ahead
Region:
Four vessel donations to Vanuatu and Fiji indicate increased Japanese maritime security assistance
Concern and reassurance over economic stability almost certain to remain the dominant regional reaction to US, Israel, Iran conflict; public support for Israel absent despite recent increased diplomatic efforts.
51 other security related activities in-brief since 16 December 2025
11 - 24 February 2026
West Papua:
Escalating violence likely to continue, including hostage taking and threats to business operations
New Caledonia:
FLNKS continue focus on votes rather than instability ahead of tight Paris debate over New Caledonia’s political future
Vanuatu:
Legal challenges and planned protest unlikely to threaten government stability
Fiji:
Arrest of former coup leader unlikely to destabilise political or military environment
Region:
51 other security related activities in-brief since 16 December 2025
28 January - 10 February 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Port Moresby evictions pose low, localised security risk
Enga Province violence almost certain to remain localised
Bougainville:
Government almost certain to continue to favour western- aligned investors in natural resources and major industries
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence party Union Calédonienne’s focus on peaceful dialogue and local elections likely indicates decreased youth support
Fiji:
Despite court finding, Prime Minister Rabuka unlikely to resign before general election
Region:
50 other security related activities in-brief since 3 December 2025
14 - 27 January 2026
West Papua:
Further clashes, hostage taking, and military presence likely
Solomon Islands:
Goldmine clashes likely to remain localised as dialogue proceeds
New Caledonia:
New Accord likely only small progress toward long-term settlement
Fiji:
Continued ministerial intervention highly likely to avert electrical worker strike
Samoa:
Low protest threat despite increasingly authoritarian actions by the Prime Minister
Region:
44 other security related activities in-brief since 20 November 2025
31 December 2025 - 13 January 2026
Solomon Islands:
Tourism investment indicates continued strengthening in China relations
Fiji:
Police will maintain lead in drug fight
Samoa:
Universal non-Christian religion ban unlikely
Drug raids very likely to increase
Region:
44 other security activities in-brief.
For those with interests, operations, and business in the South Pacific who need deeper analysis to support decision-making, full reports and archive access is available to members.