South Pacific Insights
Headline summaries on stability, security, and foreign influence developments across the South Pacific.
Full assessments, implications, and archive access are available to members.
Stability Watch
Reviewed 6 October 2026.
Stability Watch assesses the level of threat to stability on a five point scale from very low to extreme, and the direction of trend through increasing, steady, or decreasing. It monitors politics, security, and resilience.
Description and assessment on the current drivers of instability and trend indicators are available to all members.
Latest Reporting
Resilience Snapshot
Updated: 6 October 2026
Regional Fuel Situation
Key Current Assessment:
At the beginning of October, fuel and electricity prices increased across Tonga, Fiji, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Samoa. From 13-31 August, Nadi International Airport advised airlines to bring enough fuel for onward movement due to a commercial fuel quality issue limiting fuel availability - additional fuel took 7 days to arrive due to the ongoing global fuel disruption. Prices in some jurisdictions have increased in September, with others remaining above pre-US-Iran levels. More significantly, overall inflation remains elevated. ADB noted that inflation will also increase due directly to pressures from the US–Iran conflict and that the South Pacific had the greatest impact across the Asia-Pacific from these pressures.
All countries remain at Alert Level 2 - stable supply, targeted subsidies, no enforce fuel rationing.
Assessment: Increased prices on goods, transport, and utilities are likely to maintain pressure on households for the rest of 2026, affecting outer islands more acutely than capital areas, and will be compounded by the effects of El Niño. Outer islands in the Cook Islands and Fiji, and remote areas of PNG have suffered fuel shortages, but at a national level supply remains stable..
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8-22 September 2026
Papua New Guinea–Solomon Islands:
Sorcery-accusation related violence an emerging local-level threat fuelled by social media.
Bougainville:
Government almost certain to dedicate significant resources to ensure Panguna mine arson does not disrupt independence negotiations.
Solomon Islands:
Bilateral treaty illustrates short-term opportunity for traditional partners.
Vanuatu:
Ferry tragedy shows several weaknesses in maritime safety system.
Fiji:
Constitutional referendum announcement indicates likely general election date.
Region:
US elevates Pacific diplomacy and prioritises economic interests over aid.
12 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including El Niño drought relief operations.
39 operations and 44 training and capability activities in-brief since 3 August 2026.
26 August - 8 September 2026
Papua New Guinea–Bougainville:
Both Governments delay date to negotiate solutions ahead of parliamentary vote.
Solomon Islands:
PM Wale and coalition government command strong public support.
Vanuatu:
Further volcanic activity assessed as low and provincial response currently sufficient.
Fiji:
Officials expect major boost to military capabilities over coming years from Veitacini Treaty.
Region:
China's likely influence in PIF Leaders Meeting more disruptive than decisive.
Japanese maritime and emergency response assistance continues to increase.
12 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including growing effects of El Niño across the region.
35 operations and 45 training and capability activities in-brief since 27 July 2026.
12-25 August 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Increasing drought pressures likely to increase internal migration and cause urban tension.
Solomon Islands:
Proposed constitutional amendments aimed at greater separation of powers.
Fiji:
Financial intelligence identified as gap in counter-drug effort.
Tonga:
High tempo period for maritime element likely to continue into 2027.
Cook Islands:
In securing 5th consecutive term, Cook Islands Party highly likely to continue seabed mining exploration and fuel disruption subsidies.
Region:
Fiji most likely to be favoured for regional fuel infrastructure investment.
New Zealand Security Intelligence Service highlights increasing espionage and foreign interference in the South Pacific.
12 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including growing effects of El Niño across the region.
47 operations and 70 training and capability activities in-brief since 1 July 2026.
29 July - 11 August 2026
Papua New Guinea–Bougainville:
Independence negotiations almost certain to continue despite parliamentary vote.
Solomon Islands:
Government highly likely to tighten sufferance wharves regulation and customs oversight.
New Caledonia:
New pro-France political leadership prioritises economic situation rather than political future.
Vanuatu:
Teacher payment highly likely to avert renewed industrial action.
Fiji:
Kamikamica's Deputy Prime Minister reinstatement strengthens accountability and Rabuka's coalition ahead of 2026 election.
Samoa:
Continued major power outages likely to begin to have political impact.
Australia–Samoa security cooperation deepening, with a future security agreement plausible.
Cook Islands:
Cost of living the most significant voter issue and a coalition government highly likely.
Region:
Broad support for Republic of Fiji Military Forces involvement in recent multinational exercises.
11 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including growing effects of El Niño and the regional fuel situation.
42 operations and 56 training and capability activities in-brief since 22 June 2026.
15-28 July 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Cabinet reshuffle intended to improve government's standing ahead of 2027 general election.
Closure of Taiwan representative office likely an attempt to placate China and maintain economic ties.
Solomon Islands:
Government procurement changes reflect continued effort to favour domestic businesses.
Fiji:
China intent to deepen military ties lacks detail.
Cook Islands:
Cost of living and local personalities most likely to affect August election outcome.
Region:
8 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including growing effects of El Niño across Melanesia.
39 operations and 72 training and capability activities in-brief since 1 June 2026.
1-14 July 2026
West Papua:
Separatist attacks on aviation highly likely to continue over the near to medium term.
Solomon Islands:
PM Wale highly likely to continue tightening mining and natural resource governance through greater regulatory oversight and reform.
Fiji:
RFMF Commander reappointed to continue reform, not maintain status quo.
Niue:
New infrastructure programme will drive all national development projects over the next five years.
Region:
Security agreements advance Australia's objective of building a legal regional security architecture to constrain China's influence.
Fuel price drop will not relieve fiscal pressure on households as inflation remains and El Niño develops.
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure resilience issues, including growing water stress across several countries.
35 operations and 98 training and capability activities in-brief since 15 May 2026.
For those with interests, operations, and business in the South Pacific who need deeper analysis to support decision-making, full reports and archive access is available to members.