South Pacific Insights
Headline summaries on stability, security, and foreign influence developments across the South Pacific.
Full assessments, implications, and archive access are available to members.
Stability Watch
Update 30 June 2026 (reviewed 14 July 2026):
PNG remains at medium, trending up. the 30 August Bougainville referendum vote in parliament is unlikely to see widespread violence, but isolated incidents between Bougainville and PNG residents in both locations are likely. El Niño effects are also beginning with Port Moresby now under power and water rationing for the next 10 months, and water shortages in the Highlands potentially affecting up to 1.9 million residents.
Solomon Islands remains at low but has changed to trending up following the suspension of the Police Commissioner on 18 June.
New Caledonia trend is steady following peaceful provincial elections on 28 June. However, with neither pro-France nor pro-independence groups gaining a decisive majority, the territory’s political future remains unresolved. France’s increased security presence will almost certainly contain any incidents.
Stability Watch assesses the level of threat to stability on a five point scale from very low to extreme, and the direction of trend through increasing, steady, or decreasing. It monitors politics, security, and resilience.
Description and assessment on the current drivers of instability and trend indicators are available to all members.
Latest Reporting
Resilience Snapshot
Updated: 14 July 2026
Regional Fuel Situation
Key Current Assessment:
In early July, consumer fuel prices decreased in the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Tonga, and Samoa. On 16 June, inflation in Tonga was reported at 26% for transport and 25% for utilities, with similar inflationary pressures in Fiji reported on 29 June. On 8 July, the Asian Development Bank forecast that economic growth would reduce to 3.3% in 2026, from 4.2% in 2025. ADB noted that inflation will also increase due directly to pressures from the US–Iran conflict and that the South Pacific had the greatest impact across the Asia-Pacific from these pressures.
All countries remain at Alert Level 2 - stable supply, targeted subsidies, no enforce fuel rationing.
Assessment: While the fuel price drop signals a change in the month-on-month trend, prices remain above pre-US–Iran levels and overall inflation remains elevated. Increased prices on goods, transport, and utilities are likely to maintain pressure on households for the rest of 2026, affecting outer islands more acutely than capital areas, and will be compounded by the effects of El Niño as it continues to develop throughout 2026 and early 2027.
Updated: 14 July 2026
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17-30 June 2026
Papua New Guinea–Bougainville:
Both parties remain committed to independence through a negotiated process.
Solomon Islands:
Removal of primary industry tax exemptions likely intended to address corruption and increase revenue.
Suspension of Police Commissioner likely an impartial accountability measure and not politically motivated.
New Caledonia:
No decisive victory for pro-France or independence parties following provincial elections.
Vanuatu:
Teachers' strike threat likely to proceed if Government fails to present a credible payment plan.
Samoa:
PM Schmidt likely to raise Treaty of Friendship review after New Zealand November general election.
Region:
El Niño effects begin in Melanesia and is likely to compound existing food and assistance pressures.
National budgets seek to manage growth and cost of living pressures without full austerity.
34 operations and 53 training and capability activities in-brief since 14 April 2026.
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including the regional fuel situation.
3-16 June 2026
Papua New Guinea–Bougainville:
Three-quarter threshold requirement unlikely to be met during August vote.
Solomon Islands:
Prime Minister Wale almost certain to continue favouring traditional partners over China.
New Caledonia:
Provincial elections are unlikely to provide a clear pro-France or pro-independence majority.
Fiji:
Government almost certain to continue joint counter-drug operations.
Tonga:
MP Convictions likely to trigger by-elections and cabinet reshuffle.
Samoa:
Raised fuel alert level used to trigger internal department actions rather than indication of supply shortage.
Region:
Multiple countries begin preparation for El Niño disruption.
63 other security-related activities in-brief since 13 April 2026.
6 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including the regional fuel situation.
20 May - 2 June 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Minimal risk from submarine volcanic eruption
Fiji:
Delayed local elections unlikely to affect democratic stability
Region:
Fuel crisis assistance likely to remain bilateral
Enhanced regional cooperation likely to disrupt Pacific drug trafficking but not address structural issues for permanent reduction
Recent US infrastructure and investment initiatives likely aim to challenge China’s competitive advantage in the Pacific
63 other security-related activities in-brief since 8 March 2026.
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including the regional fuel situation.
6-19 May 2026
Solomon Islands:
New Prime Minister likely to maintain a measured approach towards China while prioritising ties with traditional partners.
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence, pro-France, and Government groups seek to re-balance power during 28 June elections ahead of renewed negotiations.
Vanuatu:
Vanuatu to likely continue pursuing a hedging strategy
Police 60 day public order campaign likely to see isolated incidents of violent confrontations in Port Vila
Fiji:
Vuvale Union with Australia unlikely to significantly alter the already favourable bilateral relationship
Joint operations almost certain to continue and currently retain broad support
Region:
8 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues.
97 other security related activities in-brief since 8 March 2026.
22 April - 5 May 2026
Bougainville:
Government highly likely to negotiate on behalf of mine operator to resolve landowner dispute
Solomon Islands:
New Commissioner very likely to privately favour China over traditional partners
Opposition likely to win motion of no confidence on 7 May
Vanuatu:
Government intervention unlikely to contain transport operator grievances
Fiji:
Increased tempo of military and police counter-drug operations almost certain to continue over the next four weeks
Niue:
Cost of living not a significant driver for change in general election
Region:
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues.
98 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
8-21 April 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Junior PNGDF soldiers highly likely to protest investigation findings if no consequences for senior ranks over recruitment corruption.
Solomon Islands:
Despite delay sought with appeal, PM Manele unlikely to retain power if parliament convenes in near-term.
Periodic strikes likely to occur unless TDP delivers a credible settlement.
New Caledonia:
Progress on political future unlikely until after provincial elections to be held before 28 June.
Vanuatu:
Authorities likely limiting protest activity to contain rising economic dissatisfaction, rather than fuel-specific concerns.
Fiji:
Change in RFMF's support role to Police unlikely following death in custody.
Region:
Dengue risk increase in multiple countries over coming months.
79 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
25 March - 7 April 2026
West Papua:
Latest attack and Indonesian security operation a symptom of ongoing escalation rather than a trigger.
Papua New Guinea:
Government intervention averts service disruption amid compounding health crises.
Solomon Islands:
Opposition has the initiative, favourable court ruling highly likely to boost motion of no confidence, whereas delay will favour Prime Minister Manele.
New Caledonia:
Progress or pause on New Caledonia’s political future to be decided at Prime Minister’s meeting beginning 7 April.
Vanuatu:
Government pursues maximal assistance while attempting to maintain fragile diplomatic neutrality.
Threat from multiple natural disasters decreasing.
Region:
63 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
11-24 March 2026
Bougainville:
Bougainville almost certain to maintain September 2027 independence timeline amid PNG political delays
Solomon Islands:
Prime Minister highly likely to continue parliament delay to secure majority ahead of motion of no confidence.
New Caledonia:
Local election results indicate underwhelming support for pro-independence FLNKS negotiating position.
Fiji:
New Police and cybersecurity strategies consistent with ongoing National Security Strategy
Region:
Cybersecurity weaknesses continue to drive ransomware surge across Pacific Islands
59 other security related activities in-brief since 27 January 2026
25 February - 10 March 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Opportunistic and localised raids likely to increase at remote airports
Solomon Islands:
New Chinatown police post allows China Police Liaison Team to influence local police operations and priorities
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence FLNKS likely focused on local elections and 31 March Paris vote
Vanuatu:
Government demonstrates readiness to manage ongoing Ambae volcanic activity
Fiji:
International and commercial assistance highly likely required should purchase of RFMF surveillance aircraft go ahead
Region:
Four vessel donations to Vanuatu and Fiji indicate increased Japanese maritime security assistance
Concern and reassurance over economic stability almost certain to remain the dominant regional reaction to US, Israel, Iran conflict; public support for Israel absent despite recent increased diplomatic efforts.
51 other security related activities in-brief since 16 December 2025
11 - 24 February 2026
West Papua:
Escalating violence likely to continue, including hostage taking and threats to business operations
New Caledonia:
FLNKS continue focus on votes rather than instability ahead of tight Paris debate over New Caledonia’s political future
Vanuatu:
Legal challenges and planned protest unlikely to threaten government stability
Fiji:
Arrest of former coup leader unlikely to destabilise political or military environment
Region:
51 other security related activities in-brief since 16 December 2025
For those with interests, operations, and business in the South Pacific who need deeper analysis to support decision-making, full reports and archive access is available to members.