South Pacific Insights
Headline summaries on stability, security, and foreign influence developments across the South Pacific.
Full assessments, implications, and archive access are available to members.
Stability Watch
Reviewed 25 August 2026:
Stability Watch assesses the level of threat to stability on a five point scale from very low to extreme, and the direction of trend through increasing, steady, or decreasing. It monitors politics, security, and resilience.
Description and assessment on the current drivers of instability and trend indicators are available to all members.
Latest Reporting
Resilience Snapshot
Updated: 25 August 2026
Regional Fuel Situation
Key Current Assessment:
While the July drop in fuel prices across most Pacific states signals a change in the month-on-month trend, prices remain above pre-US–Iran levels and overall inflation remains elevated. For example, on 23 August, it was reported that consumer prices had increased in Samoa for July by 19% over the last 12 months.. ADB noted that inflation will also increase due directly to pressures from the US–Iran conflict and that the South Pacific had the greatest impact across the Asia-Pacific from these pressures.
All countries remain at Alert Level 2 - stable supply, targeted subsidies, no enforce fuel rationing.
Assessment: Increased prices on goods, transport, and utilities are likely to maintain pressure on households for the rest of 2026, affecting outer islands more acutely than capital areas, and will be compounded by the effects of El Niño. Outer islands in the Cook Islands and Fiji, and remote areas of PNG have suffered fuel shortages, but at a national level supply remains stable..
Join the insights newsletter for free
Receive up to date understanding direct to your inbox every fortnight
29 July - 11 August 2026
Papua New Guinea–Bougainville:
Independence negotiations almost certain to continue despite parliamentary vote.
Solomon Islands:
Government highly likely to tighten sufferance wharves regulation and customs oversight.
New Caledonia:
New pro-France political leadership prioritises economic situation rather than political future.
Vanuatu:
Teacher payment highly likely to avert renewed industrial action.
Fiji:
Kamikamica's Deputy Prime Minister reinstatement strengthens accountability and Rabuka's coalition ahead of 2026 election.
Samoa:
Continued major power outages likely to begin to have political impact.
Australia–Samoa security cooperation deepening, with a future security agreement plausible.
Cook Islands:
Cost of living the most significant voter issue and a coalition government highly likely.
Region:
Broad support for Republic of Fiji Military Forces involvement in recent multinational exercises.
11 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including growing effects of El Niño and the regional fuel situation.
42 operations and 56 training and capability activities in-brief since 22 June 2026.
15-28 July 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Cabinet reshuffle intended to improve government's standing ahead of 2027 general election.
Closure of Taiwan representative office likely an attempt to placate China and maintain economic ties.
Solomon Islands:
Government procurement changes reflect continued effort to favour domestic businesses.
Fiji:
China intent to deepen military ties lacks detail.
Cook Islands:
Cost of living and local personalities most likely to affect August election outcome.
Region:
8 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including growing effects of El Niño across Melanesia.
39 operations and 72 training and capability activities in-brief since 1 June 2026.
1-14 July 2026
West Papua:
Separatist attacks on aviation highly likely to continue over the near to medium term.
Solomon Islands:
PM Wale highly likely to continue tightening mining and natural resource governance through greater regulatory oversight and reform.
Fiji:
RFMF Commander reappointed to continue reform, not maintain status quo.
Niue:
New infrastructure programme will drive all national development projects over the next five years.
Region:
Security agreements advance Australia's objective of building a legal regional security architecture to constrain China's influence.
Fuel price drop will not relieve fiscal pressure on households as inflation remains and El Niño develops.
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure resilience issues, including growing water stress across several countries.
35 operations and 98 training and capability activities in-brief since 15 May 2026.
17-30 June 2026
Papua New Guinea–Bougainville:
Both parties remain committed to independence through a negotiated process.
Solomon Islands:
Removal of primary industry tax exemptions likely intended to address corruption and increase revenue.
Suspension of Police Commissioner likely an impartial accountability measure and not politically motivated.
New Caledonia:
No decisive victory for pro-France or independence parties following provincial elections.
Vanuatu:
Teachers' strike threat likely to proceed if Government fails to present a credible payment plan.
Samoa:
PM Schmidt likely to raise Treaty of Friendship review after New Zealand November general election.
Region:
El Niño effects begin in Melanesia and is likely to compound existing food and assistance pressures.
National budgets seek to manage growth and cost of living pressures without full austerity.
34 operations and 53 training and capability activities in-brief since 14 April 2026.
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including the regional fuel situation.
3-16 June 2026
Papua New Guinea–Bougainville:
Three-quarter threshold requirement unlikely to be met during August vote.
Solomon Islands:
Prime Minister Wale almost certain to continue favouring traditional partners over China.
New Caledonia:
Provincial elections are unlikely to provide a clear pro-France or pro-independence majority.
Fiji:
Government almost certain to continue joint counter-drug operations.
Tonga:
MP Convictions likely to trigger by-elections and cabinet reshuffle.
Samoa:
Raised fuel alert level used to trigger internal department actions rather than indication of supply shortage.
Region:
Multiple countries begin preparation for El Niño disruption.
63 other security-related activities in-brief since 13 April 2026.
6 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including the regional fuel situation.
20 May - 2 June 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Minimal risk from submarine volcanic eruption
Fiji:
Delayed local elections unlikely to affect democratic stability
Region:
Fuel crisis assistance likely to remain bilateral
Enhanced regional cooperation likely to disrupt Pacific drug trafficking but not address structural issues for permanent reduction
Recent US infrastructure and investment initiatives likely aim to challenge China’s competitive advantage in the Pacific
63 other security-related activities in-brief since 8 March 2026.
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues, including the regional fuel situation.
6-19 May 2026
Solomon Islands:
New Prime Minister likely to maintain a measured approach towards China while prioritising ties with traditional partners.
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence, pro-France, and Government groups seek to re-balance power during 28 June elections ahead of renewed negotiations.
Vanuatu:
Vanuatu to likely continue pursuing a hedging strategy
Police 60 day public order campaign likely to see isolated incidents of violent confrontations in Port Vila
Fiji:
Vuvale Union with Australia unlikely to significantly alter the already favourable bilateral relationship
Joint operations almost certain to continue and currently retain broad support
Region:
8 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues.
97 other security related activities in-brief since 8 March 2026.
22 April - 5 May 2026
Bougainville:
Government highly likely to negotiate on behalf of mine operator to resolve landowner dispute
Solomon Islands:
New Commissioner very likely to privately favour China over traditional partners
Opposition likely to win motion of no confidence on 7 May
Vanuatu:
Government intervention unlikely to contain transport operator grievances
Fiji:
Increased tempo of military and police counter-drug operations almost certain to continue over the next four weeks
Niue:
Cost of living not a significant driver for change in general election
Region:
7 lifeline and critical infrastructure issues.
98 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
8-21 April 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Junior PNGDF soldiers highly likely to protest investigation findings if no consequences for senior ranks over recruitment corruption.
Solomon Islands:
Despite delay sought with appeal, PM Manele unlikely to retain power if parliament convenes in near-term.
Periodic strikes likely to occur unless TDP delivers a credible settlement.
New Caledonia:
Progress on political future unlikely until after provincial elections to be held before 28 June.
Vanuatu:
Authorities likely limiting protest activity to contain rising economic dissatisfaction, rather than fuel-specific concerns.
Fiji:
Change in RFMF's support role to Police unlikely following death in custody.
Region:
Dengue risk increase in multiple countries over coming months.
79 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
25 March - 7 April 2026
West Papua:
Latest attack and Indonesian security operation a symptom of ongoing escalation rather than a trigger.
Papua New Guinea:
Government intervention averts service disruption amid compounding health crises.
Solomon Islands:
Opposition has the initiative, favourable court ruling highly likely to boost motion of no confidence, whereas delay will favour Prime Minister Manele.
New Caledonia:
Progress or pause on New Caledonia’s political future to be decided at Prime Minister’s meeting beginning 7 April.
Vanuatu:
Government pursues maximal assistance while attempting to maintain fragile diplomatic neutrality.
Threat from multiple natural disasters decreasing.
Region:
63 other security related activities in-brief since 27 February 2026.
For those with interests, operations, and business in the South Pacific who need deeper analysis to support decision-making, full reports and archive access is available to members.