South Pacific Insight
Headline summaries on stability, security, and foreign influence developments across the South Pacific.
Full assessments, implications, and archive access are available to members.
New: Stability Watch
Monitoring the threats to stability in each state and territory.
Stability Watch assesses the level of threat to stability on a five point scale from very low to extreme, and the direction of trend through increasing, steady, or decreasing. It monitors politics, security, and resilience.
Description and assessment on the current drivers of instability and trend indicators are available to all members.
Updated: 15 April 2026
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Updated: 7 April 2026
Regional Fuel Situation
Updated: 7 April 2026
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11-24 March 2026
Bougainville:
Bougainville almost certain to maintain September 2027 independence timeline amid PNG political delays
Solomon Islands:
Prime Minister highly likely to continue parliament delay to secure majority ahead of motion of no confidence.
New Caledonia:
Local election results indicate underwhelming support for pro-independence FLNKS negotiating position.
Fiji:
New Police and cybersecurity strategies consistent with ongoing National Security Strategy
Region:
Cybersecurity weaknesses continue to drive ransomware surge across Pacific Islands
59 other security related activities in-brief since 27 January 2026
25 February - 10 March 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Opportunistic and localised raids likely to increase at remote airports
Solomon Islands:
New Chinatown police post allows China Police Liaison Team to influence local police operations and priorities
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence FLNKS likely focused on local elections and 31 March Paris vote
Vanuatu:
Government demonstrates readiness to manage ongoing Ambae volcanic activity
Fiji:
International and commercial assistance highly likely required should purchase of RFMF surveillance aircraft go ahead
Region:
Four vessel donations to Vanuatu and Fiji indicate increased Japanese maritime security assistance
Concern and reassurance over economic stability almost certain to remain the dominant regional reaction to US, Israel, Iran conflict; public support for Israel absent despite recent increased diplomatic efforts.
51 other security related activities in-brief since 16 December 2025
11 - 24 February 2026
West Papua:
Escalating violence likely to continue, including hostage taking and threats to business operations
New Caledonia:
FLNKS continue focus on votes rather than instability ahead of tight Paris debate over New Caledonia’s political future
Vanuatu:
Legal challenges and planned protest unlikely to threaten government stability
Fiji:
Arrest of former coup leader unlikely to destabilise political or military environment
Region:
51 other security related activities in-brief since 16 December 2025
28 January - 10 February 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Port Moresby evictions pose low, localised security risk
Enga Province violence almost certain to remain localised
Bougainville:
Government almost certain to continue to favour western- aligned investors in natural resources and major industries
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence party Union Calédonienne’s focus on peaceful dialogue and local elections likely indicates decreased youth support
Fiji:
Despite court finding, Prime Minister Rabuka unlikely to resign before general election
Region:
50 other security related activities in-brief since 3 December 2025
14 - 27 January 2026
West Papua:
Further clashes, hostage taking, and military presence likely
Solomon Islands:
Goldmine clashes likely to remain localised as dialogue proceeds
New Caledonia:
New Accord likely only small progress toward long-term settlement
Fiji:
Continued ministerial intervention highly likely to avert electrical worker strike
Samoa:
Low protest threat despite increasingly authoritarian actions by the Prime Minister
Region:
44 other security related activities in-brief since 20 November 2025
31 December 2025 - 13 January 2026
Solomon Islands:
Tourism investment indicates continued strengthening in China relations
Fiji:
Police will maintain lead in drug fight
Samoa:
Universal non-Christian religion ban unlikely
Drug raids very likely to increase
Region:
44 other security activities in-brief.
For those with interests, operations, and business in the South Pacific who need deeper analysis to support decision-making, full reports and archive access is available to members.