South Pacific Insight
Headline summaries on stability, security, and foreign influence developments across the South Pacific.
Full assessments, implications, and archive access are available to members.
New Release: Instability from Gen-Z style protests unlikely in the South Pacific during 2026
Latest Reporting
Resilience Snapshot
Updated: 24 February 2026
28 January - 10 February 2026
Papua New Guinea:
Port Moresby evictions pose low, localised security risk
Enga Province violence almost certain to remain localised
Bougainville:
Government almost certain to continue to favour western- aligned investors in natural resources and major industries
New Caledonia:
Pro-independence party Union Calédonienne’s focus on peaceful dialogue and local elections likely indicates decreased youth support
Fiji:
Despite court finding, Prime Minister Rabuka unlikely to resign before general election
Region:
50 other security related activities in-brief since 3 December 2025
14 - 27 January 2026
West Papua:
Further clashes, hostage taking, and military presence likely
Solomon Islands:
Goldmine clashes likely to remain localised as dialogue proceeds
New Caledonia:
New Accord likely only small progress toward long-term settlement
Fiji:
Continued ministerial intervention highly likely to avert electrical worker strike
Samoa:
Low protest threat despite increasingly authoritarian actions by the Prime Minister
Region:
44 other security related activities in-brief since 20 November 2025
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31 December 2025 - 13 January 2026
Solomon Islands:
Tourism investment indicates continued strengthening in China relations
Fiji:
Police will maintain lead in drug fight
Samoa:
Universal non-Christian religion ban unlikely
Drug raids very likely to increase
Region:
44 other security activities in-brief.
17 - 30 December 2025
Vanuatu:
Prime Minister Napat likely to maintain continued coalition backing for the medium-term
Fiji:
Routine cabinet reshuffle indicates focus on economic issues in the lead up to the 2026 general election
Proposed legal reforms to catch up with increased transnational crime investigative activity
Tonga:
Prime Minister Fakafanua and King Tupou VI expected to remain generally aligned
Samoa:
Prime Minister fears public service corruption enabling transnational drug trafficking
Region:
39 other security activities in-brief.
3-16 December 2025
Papua New Guinea-Bougainville:
Papua New Guinea progresses Bougainville’s path toward independence in 2027
Papua New Guinea-Australia-Indonesia:
Trilateral meeting unlikely to produce policy changes in the short term
New Caledonia:
March referendum highly unlikely to go ahead
Vanuatu:
Courts will decide if Prime Minister to face a difficult vote of no confidence
Tonga:
Economic priorities unlikely to change under new prime minister
Region:
43 other security activities in-brief
19 November - 2 December 2025
Papua New Guinea:
Foreign Policy White Paper likely indicates indirect preference for security and bilateralism
Solomon Islands:
New regulations and drug-testing unlikely to control drug inflow
Australia-Solomon Islands policing agreement likely to continue to be delayed until Australian obligations watered down
New Caledonia:
8 December Congressional vote will indicate whether Bougival referendum to go ahead in March 2026
Tonga:
Prime Minister ‘Aisake Eke likely to retain premiership
Samoa:
Criticism of media freedom and health likely to persist during PM Schmidt’s governmental term
Region:
40 other security activities in-brief
5-18 November 2025
Papua New Guinea:
Clash unlikely to threaten national security
New Caledonia:
Minister visit reduces tensions but prolongs political negotiations
Vanuatu:
China grant very likely an incentive to delay the Nakamal Agreement
Government takes measures to ensure sovereignty before signing Nakamal Agreement
Fiji:
Traditional reconciliation methods almost certain to continue for landowner and commercial venture disputes
Tonga:
Noble comments highly likely to undermine public support for PM Eke
Region:
All countries highly likely to require external assistance in response to disasters in 2025-2026 tropical cyclone season
31 other security activities in-brief
22 October - 4 November 2025
Papua New Guinea:
Marape Government likely to remain until 2027 election
New Caledonia:
FLNKS likely to focus on dialogue until after Minister’s visit
Fiji:
Resignation of deputy prime ministers to likely affect coalition support
Tonga:
Election-related violence unlikely during and after polls
Samoa:
Proactive police presence likely in Apia over 8-9 November ahead of league final
Region:
Government cyclone season preparations likely to reduce some impact from extreme weather
34 other security activities in-brief
For those with interests, operations, and business in the South Pacific who need deeper analysis to support decision-making, full reports and archive access is available to members.