South Pacific Insight
Headline summaries on stability, security, and foreign influence developments across the South Pacific.
Full assessments, implications, and archive access are available to members.
Latest Reporting
Resilience Snapshot
Updated: 13 January 2026
17 - 30 December 2025
Vanuatu:
Prime Minister Napat likely to maintain continued coalition backing for the medium-term
Fiji:
Routine cabinet reshuffle indicates focus on economic issues in the lead up to the 2026 general election
Proposed legal reforms to catch up with increased transnational crime investigative activity
Tonga:
Prime Minister Fakafanua and King Tupou VI expected to remain generally aligned
Samoa:
Prime Minister fears public service corruption enabling transnational drug trafficking
Region:
39 other security activities in-brief.
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3-16 December 2025
Papua New Guinea-Bougainville:
Papua New Guinea progresses Bougainville’s path toward independence in 2027
Papua New Guinea-Australia-Indonesia:
Trilateral meeting unlikely to produce policy changes in the short term
New Caledonia:
March referendum highly unlikely to go ahead
Vanuatu:
Courts will decide if Prime Minister to face a difficult vote of no confidence
Tonga:
Economic priorities unlikely to change under new prime minister
Region:
43 other security activities in-brief
19 November - 2 December 2025
Papua New Guinea:
Foreign Policy White Paper likely indicates indirect preference for security and bilateralism
Solomon Islands:
New regulations and drug-testing unlikely to control drug inflow
Australia-Solomon Islands policing agreement likely to continue to be delayed until Australian obligations watered down
New Caledonia:
8 December Congressional vote will indicate whether Bougival referendum to go ahead in March 2026
Tonga:
Prime Minister ‘Aisake Eke likely to retain premiership
Samoa:
Criticism of media freedom and health likely to persist during PM Schmidt’s governmental term
Region:
40 other security activities in-brief
5-18 November 2025
Papua New Guinea:
Clash unlikely to threaten national security
New Caledonia:
Minister visit reduces tensions but prolongs political negotiations
Vanuatu:
China grant very likely an incentive to delay the Nakamal Agreement
Government takes measures to ensure sovereignty before signing Nakamal Agreement
Fiji:
Traditional reconciliation methods almost certain to continue for landowner and commercial venture disputes
Tonga:
Noble comments highly likely to undermine public support for PM Eke
Region:
All countries highly likely to require external assistance in response to disasters in 2025-2026 tropical cyclone season
31 other security activities in-brief
22 October - 4 November 2025
Papua New Guinea:
Marape Government likely to remain until 2027 election
New Caledonia:
FLNKS likely to focus on dialogue until after Minister’s visit
Fiji:
Resignation of deputy prime ministers to likely affect coalition support
Tonga:
Election-related violence unlikely during and after polls
Samoa:
Proactive police presence likely in Apia over 8-9 November ahead of league final
Region:
Government cyclone season preparations likely to reduce some impact from extreme weather
34 other security activities in-brief
For those with interests, operations, and business in the South Pacific who need deeper analysis to support decision-making, full reports and archive access is available to members.