Cook Islands: Cost of living the most significant voter issue and a coalition government highly likely

A general election will be held on 12 August. A poll conducted by local media confirmed the cost of living as the most significant concern for voters (previously assessed in SPI 52, 15–28 July 2026). Inflation caused by the US–Iran War has increased food and power costs in a country that relies heavily on imported goods, as well as accommodation rents and the government's recently introduced user-pays water usage system. Another major issue is seabed mining, with the current government supportive of further exploration and the largest opposition group, the Cook Islands United Party (CIUP), opposed. Preliminary election results are expected on the night of 12 August. The poll notes no party has a clear majority, with the current government on 30.5%, CIUP on 26.7%, and 25.7% undecided.

Assessment: It is highly likely that independents and minor parties will hold a balance of power over the next government. The current Cook Islands Party (CIP) governs with the support of two independents, and a large number of independents are standing again in this election. In other jurisdictions, incumbent parties are highly likely to lose when the cost of living is the major election issue; however, in the first-past-the-post electoral system used by the Cook Islands, local loyalty to major personalities is likely to moderate this effect. The poll shows that CIP has lost 14% vote share compared to the 2024 election, while CIUP has gained almost 8%. CIP has been in power since 2010, winning the last four elections; a fifth win would make CIP the first party to reach five consecutive terms in the country's history.

Sources: Renate Rivers, “Cost of living takes centre stage as Cook Islands prepare to vote for next government,” PMN, 7 August 2026; “'The power of one': Independents are changing politics, says ex-Cook Islands leader,” Cook Islands News, reprinted in PMN, 3 August 2026; Tiana Haxton, “Cost of living takes centre-stage ahead of Cook Islands election,” RNZ, 6 August 2026; Khalia Strong, “Rarotonga could decide who governs after poll signals tight election,” PMN, 11 August 2026.