New Caledonia: Bougival process remains despite uncertainty in France and New Caledonia

7 Oct

The pro-independence movement’s umbrella organisation, FLNKS, chose the official day recognising France’s annexation of New Caledonia to state its aims for full independence. On 24 September, FLNKS publicly stated that full sovereignty was sought before France’s presidential election around April 2027. They also called for provincial elections to remain in November 2025 - New Caledonia’s Congress previously voted to delay these until mid-2026, after a referendum on the Bougival Agreement (see SPI #30, of 10-23 September 2025). Separately, also on 24 September, judges in France eased supervision restrictions on four CCAT members (FLNKS’ action arm), including FLNKS’ new leader, Christian Tein. The members are alleged to have led the May 2024 riots but can now return to New Caledonia while awaiting a final finding on their case. Meanwhile, on 6 October, France’s new Prime Minister resigned after only one month in the job.

Assessment: FLNKS does not represent all independence parties. Former members PALIKA and UPM recently indicated continued commitment to Bougival after touring the country and explaining its contents to their supporters. With PALIKA and UPM’s continued backing, in addition to the pro-France parties, there is enough support within New Caledonia to continue to legally implement the Bougival Agreement. Parts of Bougival have already been gazetted within France’s political process, making it highly unlikely that a new government will reverse its progress.

FLNKS is increasingly diverging from the main political settlement process with little formal avenues to oppose it. While Tein was formerly head of CCAT and the central figure in the May 2024 riots, as leader of FLNKS he must now also balance political considerations, and the certainty that he will be re-expelled to France should he become involved in political violence. FLNKS is likely to continue to make statements and clearly signal the intent to protest before taking any protest action - security forces are almost certain to have the capacity to contain planned protests if they turn violent.

Sources: Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Le FLNKS et alliés déclarent que l’indépendance sera proclamée dès les conditions réunies, au plus tard avant les présidentielles 2027,” France Info, September 24, 2025; Claudette Trupit and Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Bougival-FLNKS, contexte national : un week-end de réflexion pour le Palika et l’UPM,” France Info, September 29, 2025; Emma Jaconelli, “Christian Tein pourrait bientôt rentrer en Nouvelle-Calédonie,” France Info, September 29, 2025; Quentin Menu and Julie Postollec, “Nouvelle-Calédonie: le FLNKS retire officiellement ses signatures de l’accord de Bougival,” France Info, October 1, 2025; Théo Rouby, “Le parquet s’oppose au retour de Christian Tein en Nouvelle-Calédonie, ‘rien ne justifie cela’, estiment ses avocats,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 3, 2025; Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Maintenant on avance sur Bougival : les réactions calédoniennes au gouvernement Lecornu,” October 5, 2025.