New Caledonia: March referendum highly unlikely to go ahead
According to a French media report, the French Government will no longer seek a referendum on the Bougival Agreement in March 2025. The report further stated that President Macron will host a meeting of all political parties in Paris in mid-January 2026. These events followed a consultation mission of senior French officials, and a non-binding vote in the New Caledonian Congress on 8 December, which saw 19 in favour, 14 against, and 19 abstentions regarding the March referendum.
Separately, alcohol sales were banned or are scheduled to be banned in various locations during local festive gatherings over the periods of 4-8 December, 13-14 December, and 19-21 December.
Assessment: The Congress vote abstentions illustrated more significant opposition to the French Government’s plan than previously made public. However, it is important to distinguish the absentees’ likely opposition to the Government’s implementation process, rather than FLNKS’ established opposition to the Bougival Agreement outright. At President Macron’s mid-January meeting, the Government and all parties – except FLNKS – are likely to try and retain Bougival and establish a new implementation process, likely to result in further delays to its implementation. The continued increased security force presence in New Caledonia will contain large incidents but isolated incidents of road blocks and stone throwing will continue. Alcohol bans are likely to continue over the Christmas and New Year period.
Sources: Marguerite Poigoune, “Dissensions au sein du Palika: des militants contestent certaines prises de position,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 4 December 2025; Alix Madec, “La vente d’alcool interdite à Houaïlou, Ponérihouen et Poindimié,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 5 December 2025; Franc̜oise Tromeur and Anne-Claire Lévêque, “Direct : quel avis du Congrès sur le texte de la consultation à propos de Bougival? Suivez la séance,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 8 December 2025; Franc̜oise Tromeur, Loreleï Aubry, Luigi Wahmereungo-Palmieri, and Brigitte Whaap, “Le gouvernement Lecornu renonce à la consultation anticipée des Calédoniens sur Bougival,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 15 December 2025.
