Papua New Guinea: Marape Government likely to remain until 2027 election

On 30 October, the Speaker of Parliament quashed a motion of no confidence (MONC) submitted against Prime Minister Marape. The MONC was put forward the previous day by MP Sir Puka Temu with former PM Peter O’Neill nominated as replacement PM. The Speaker announced that a March 2025 constitutional amendment prevents a MONC vote being held within 18 months of a previous vote - the latest MONC occurred in April 2025, which PM Marape won 89-16. 

Assessment: PM Marape’s Government is likely to continue to show stability through to the 2027 general election. In public statements since 29 October, PM Marape remained confident he would withstand the MONC, even if it went to a parliamentary vote. Any subsequent legal challenge to the Speaker’s action by the opposition is unlikely to lead to a change of PM. The opposition group likely thought they could capitalise on perceptions of ineffective policing of tribal violence in the highlands provinces and opposition to the recently signed defence treaty with Australia. In 2019, former PM O’Neill himself was ousted through a MONC by PM Marape which is also likely a motivating factor.

Sources: “PM: It’s O’Neill or me. New motion of no confidence emerges,” The National, October 30, 2025; “Speaker returns no-confidence motion against PM Marape,” PNG Online News, Facebook, October 30, 2025; “Prime Minister Marape escapes no-confidence challenge under new constitutional rule,” RNZ, October 31, 2025; “Marape: O’Neill’s call to retire after 2027 a ‘gimmick’,” The National, November 4, 2025.