Region: China Naval Task Group irregular deployment almost certainly sends multiple strategic messages to Australia and New Zealand
On 21 and 22 February, a People’s Liberation Army - Navy (PLA-N) Task Group conducted two live firing exercises in international waters between New Zealand and Australia. Notification occurred within minutes of the exercise’s start rather than the customary 24-48 hours of advanced warning issued through Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs). According to Australia’s air traffic control agency, 49 commercial flights were required to change flight paths. The Task Group consists of the Jiangkai II-class frigate Hengyang, the Renhai-class cruiser Zunyi, and the Fuchi-class replenishment vessel Weishanhu from the PLA Southern Theatre Command. They deployed in early February, transiting the southern Philippines on 3 February. As of 26 February, the Task Group was moving West around Tasmania, including movement inside the Australian Exclusive Economic Zone.
Assessment: The presence of a PLA-N multi-vessel Task Group in the South Pacific is irregular and the live firing activity unprecedented. Navy Task Groups take time to ready and transit indicating deliberate planning for the activity. In addition to testing military responses from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, the operation almost certainly has multiple strategic messages and diplomatic objectives - Russia similarly uses naval activity and NOTAMs to carry out strategic messaging in Europe’s North Sea. Geographically, the Task Group’s route separates Australia and New Zealand from the countries in the South Pacific, reinforcing that the week previously, China signed a controversial agreement with the Cook Islands, a country in free association with New Zealand. More immediately, the Australian and Chinese Foreign Ministers were scheduled to meet at the G20 conference - the incident likely disrupted the intended Australian talking points while also drawing attention to the lack of a US response in support of Australia.
Sources: “Chinese Naval Task Group,” New Zealand Defence Force, March 4, 2025; Renju Jose and Lucy Craymer, “Chinese Navy Drill in Tasman Sea Forced 49 Flights to Change Paths, Australian Official Says,” Reuters, February 25, 2025; Stephen Dziedzic and Andrew Greene, “Penny Wong Challenges Chinese Foreign Minister over 'Unprecedented' Live Fire Drills off Australian Coast,” ABC News, February 22, 2025; Kristian Åtland, Thomas Nilsen, and Torbjørn Pedersen, “Bolstering the Bastion: The Changing Pattern of Russia’s Military Exercises in the High North,” Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies 7, no. 1 (2024): 145–160.
