Region: El Niño effects begin in Melenesia and is likely to compound existing food and assistance pressures
Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, and the Solomon Islands have begun to report El Niño effects while almost all South Pacific states and territories have begun national and local preparations. On 22 June, Solomon Islands media reporting noted that little rainfall in Gizo over the previous month has led to rain catchments running dry, forcing residents to rely on a system of wells. In PNG, several Highlands areas experienced crop loss and low water levels due to unusual frost conditions. Oxfam PNG assess that 1.9 million Highlands residents are at risk from drought, with several rivers running dry already and some schools reducing hours due to heat and water shortages. On 26 June, utility managers in Port Moresby announced power and water rationing would be required for 10 months due to low water levels affecting the Sirinum Dam. On 21 June, the Autonomous Bougainville Government noted during a damage assessment following low-level eruptive activity on Mount Bagana that ash contamination of water sources carried an elevated risk due to no rainfall during the preceding 4–5 weeks. PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, and the Cook Islands have all publicly noted the initiation of contingency planning and public messaging for residents to prepare by conserving water and storing food. PNG and Vanuatu agencies in particular noted that conditions will vary by location, water storage infrastructure needs development support, and access to remote areas is a major challenge. Tongan officials are expecting increased severity of category 3–5 tropical cyclones during the November 2026–April 2027 season (on average, Tonga experiences 2–4 TCs with 2 in the 3–5 category each season).
Assessment: Vanuatu Meteorology and Hydro-Meteorological Services outlined that El Niño conditions are likely to strengthen during September–November, peak from November–January 2027 and then gradually weaken and return to neutral conditions around March to May 2027. The effect of drought on crops will almost certainly compound pressure from food price inflation already underway due to the global fuel disruption. The early and consistent messaging to communities to undertake local preparations is likely to allow central governments to be more targeted in national-level intervention. However, international assistance, particularly for food, water, and tropical cyclones, is almost certain to be sought from September 2026–May 2027.
Sources: “Vanuatu urged to brace for El Nin͂o,” VBTC, 28 May 2026; Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services, “Fiji Sugarcane Rainfall Outlook For June, July, August 2026 and July to September 2026,” Official Website, accessed 14 June 2026; Bryan Manabat, “'When it comes to these threats, we have to be ready to rock and roll:' Marianas, Micronesia can expect up to seven more storms in 2026,” Pacific Island Times, 7 June 2026; Inoke Rabonu, “Fiji on El Niño watch: What you need to know,” Fiji Sun, 16 June 2026; Tonga Meteorological Services, “El Niño Declaration is now in-force for Tonga and is underway in the Tropical Pacific,” Facebook, 19 June 2026; NiueMetoffice Staff, “𝐄𝐋 𝐍𝐈Ñ𝐎 𝐇𝐀𝐒 𝐍𝐎𝐖 𝐁𝐄𝐄𝐍 𝐃𝐄𝐂𝐋𝐀𝐑𝐄𝐃 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐈𝐔𝐄!” Facebook, 19 June 2026; “El Niño Phase Declared for Solomon Islands,” Facebook post, Solomon Star News, 19 June 2026; OCHA Office of the Pacific Islands, post, Facebook, 26 June 2026; “PNG PM directs nationwide preparedness as EL Nino threatens prolonged dry season,” PACNEWS, 23 June 2026; “El Niño declared, significant climate impacts expected for Tonga,” Matangi Tonga, 23 June 2026; “El Nin͂o conditions hit Highlands. Drought-indiced conditions threaten food security,” The National, 19 June 2026; Asanga Divulweva, “When the Highlands Turned White: How El Niño Is Pushing Papua New Guinea Toward a Major Food Crisis,” Commonwealth Union, 26 June 2026; “Power to be rationed. Water shortage forces load-shedding,” The National , 29 June 2026.
