Region: Future Naval Task Groups from China almost certain to collect intelligence against South Pacific states
Papua New Guinea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs divulged that an uncrewed air vehicle (UAV) was identified flying over PNG territory as the Peoples’ Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) frigate Hengyang transited the Torres Strait. Around 11 February, the UAV was seen 6km inland from Mabaduan village and, according to the Minister, the PNG Government was not notified about the activity by China. After transiting the Torres Strait, which separates PNG and Australia, the Hengyang joined the two other PLAN vessels and moved south to the Tasman Sea. Over 27 February to 8 March, the PLAN Task Group continued its circumnavigation around the south and west of Australia, moving north to to Indonesia’s Sunda Strait by 9 March. The Task Group crossed into Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone at various points during its passage.
Assessment: The type of aircraft observed in PNG airspace remains unconfirmed. PLAN frigates typically operate Z-9 light helicopters, while UAV operations are not yet standard. China frequently conducts espionage in Pacific states through cyberactivity. Pacific states lack the capability to monitor or counter UAV use. Further PLAN Task Group activity in the South Pacific is almost certain, as is intelligence collection against South Pacific states using multiple means.
Sources: ABC Pacific and Pacnews, “Large Drone Spotted Near Border with PNG as Chinese Warships Passed Nearby,” Islands Business, March 5, 2025; Australia, “People’s Liberation Army–Navy Vessels Operating Near Australia,” Department of Defence, March 9, 2025; New Zealand, “Chinese Naval Task Group,” New Zealand Defence Force, March 4, 2025; Alex Luck, “Chinese Task Force Circumnavigates Australia, Causing Local Stir,” Naval News, March 7, 2025.
