Region: Multiple countries begin preparation for El Niño disruption
On 2 June, the World Meteorological Organization issued findings that a moderate strength El Niño event was likely over June–November 2026. Pre-empting the announcement, on 29 May, the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Pacific Office held an initial regional El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Working Group meeting to present scientific findings and discuss regional preparations. Subsequently, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu have declared an El Niño "watch", with PNG's focus on its seven highland provinces. Vanuatu has encouraged the storing of water, and PNG noted access to impacted communities is likely to be an issue. Fiji warned sugarcane farmers that rainfall would begin reducing in June, with some areas expecting 0–25mm during July and August. On 5 June, National Weather Service Guam announced that Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands can expect four to seven tropical storms during the remainder of 2026, with three to five expected to strengthen into typhoons.
Assessment: An El Niño period generally increases severe drought, water shortages, and heatwaves in Papua New Guinea, Palau, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, and Niue, while heavy rainfall, flooding, and tidal surges are typical for Nauru, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the northern Cook Islands. Hotter than normal regional temperatures are expected from July 2026. As multiple locations across the South Pacific are likely to experience impacts simultaneously, external support is highly likely to be needed as conditions compound from August onward.
Sources: World Meteorological Organization, “WMO: Prepare for El Niño,” press release, Official Website, 2 June 2026; “OCHA Office of the Pacific Islands,” Facebook, 29 May 2026; “Pacific news in brief for 4 June,” RNZ, 4 June 2026; “Vanuatu urged to brace for El Niño,” VBTC, 28 May 2026; Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services, “Fiji Sugarcane Rainfall Outlook for June, July, August 2026 and July to September 2026,” Official Website, accessed 14 June 2026; Bryan Manabat, “Marianas, Micronesia can expect up to seven more storms in 2026,” Pacific Island Times, 7 June 2026.
