Region: Six to 10 tropical cyclones expected over November to April

The New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and MetService have forecasted that the Southwest Pacific will experience a normal to below-normal number of tropical cyclones during the 2024–2025 season. The season runs from November to the end of April. Six to 10 tropical cyclones are predicted, based against an average of nine per season. There is a higher risk for PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the western South Pacific. Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the highest in the region, averaging two or three per year. Tonga and Fiji are preparing for up to two cyclones. However, three or four severe tropical cyclones are expected to develop to category 3 or higher anywhere in the region. Due to the La Niña phase of the climate pattern, the cyclones are expected to develop later in the season. Meteorologists have identified that the average number of cyclones has reduced from 10 to nine over the last 30 years but those that do occur have increased in intensity. This long-term trend is due to the impacts of climate change.

Assessment: Pacific Island countries have taken numerous measures to increase early warning and communication to the public over the last 12 months. However, recovery is likely to require multinational assistance, particularly with more intense extreme weather and the possibility of subsequent cyclones impacting before recovery from the previous