Samoa: Coalition government likely outcome of upcoming snap election
On 27 May, thirty-four Samoan Members of Parliament (MPs) voted against the 2025-2026 national budget, with 16 MPs voting in support. The Head of State, Tuimalealiifano Sualauvi Vaaletoa II, dissolved Parliament following Prime Minister (PM) Fiame’s advice, sending the country to prepare for an early election. Subsequently, caretaker PM Fiame and her Cabinet have registered a new political party - the Samoa Uniting Party with the Office of the Electoral Commission ahead of the elections. The FAST party disagreed with the dissolution, stating that it had a majority in Parliament and qualified to rule until the next elections and would seek legal action against the dissolution.
Assessment: The election is expected to take place 90 days after the dissolution of Parliament, indicating it must take place by 29 August. The PM Fiame-led Samoa Uniting Party is very likely to split the Fa’atuatua ile Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST) party’s votes, allowing the HRPP to leverage the division during its campaign. Violence is unlikely to occur before or during the election. The formation of a coalition government after the election is likely to face challenges, especially between the FAST, HRPP, and the PM Fiame-led Samoa Uniting Party. The Supreme Court is unlikely to rule in favour of the FAST party concerning the dissolution of Parliament.
Sources: Matai'a Lanuola Tusani T - Ah Tong, “Budget fails, early elections triggered,” Samoa Observer, May 27, 2025; Matai'a Lanuola Tusani T - Ah Tong, “FAST challenges early election,” Samoa Observer, May 29, 2025; Matai'a Lanuola Tusani T - Ah Tong, “Fiame led Samoa Uniting Party registered,” Samoa Observer, May 30, 2025; 'Alakihihifo Vailala, “Sāmoa Parliament formally dissolved, elections expected within three months,” Pacific Media Network, June 4, 2025.
