Samoa: Coalition government most likely election outcome
Samoa’s general election on 29 August will be the country’s most contested with 187 total candidates. 27 of the 44 independent candidates have formed “Independent Together,” a fourth competitive bloc alongside the newly formed Samoa United Party (SUP and current government), FAST party, and Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP). 26 seats are required to form a majority in the 51 member parliament (there is also a provision for additional seats to ensure at least 6 MPs are women). An alcohol sale ban will be in place from 28 August to 6.00am on 30 August (the ban does not include hotel sales to guests) and an increased police presence of 600 officers to be present on the day. Results are expected on 1 September.
Assessment: It is likely that no single party will win an outright majority and a coalition government will be required. Previous elections have been dominated by FAST and HRPP. While one independent MP held sway on government formation during the 2021 election, Samoa has not previously required coalition negotiations between parties. MPs have 45 days to form a government, otherwise another election will take place while the current government would remain. A coalition between FAST and HRPP is unlikely. The most likely outcome will involve one of the three main parties and a group of independent MPs. Legal challenges for individual seats are also likely to complicate coalition negotiations. Rallies are possible during negotiations but political violence on election day or after is unlikely. Alcohol bans are a common occurrence during Samoan elections and are not specific to the current situation.
Sources: Bethel Peato‑Ale, “Independents Unite: 27 Independent Candidates Form Coalition,” Samoa Observer, August 16, 2025; Jarrett Malifa, “Explainer: Samoa Heads into Its Most Unpredictable Election,” Samoa Observer, August 24, 2025; Grace Tinetali‑Fiavaai, “Samoa General Election: 187 Candidates Vying for 50 Seats,” RNZ, August 19, 2025; Marieta Heidi Ilalio, “Only 72 Overseas Samoans Will Vote,” Samoa Observer, August 21, 2025; Bethel Peato‑Ale, “Elections Alcohol Ban Enforced,” Samoa Observer, August 22, 2025.
