Solomon Islands: Opposition likely to win motion of no confidence on 7 May

On 1 May, the Court of Appeal ordered Prime Minister (PM) Jeremiah Manele to convene Parliament by 7 May to hear a motion of no confidence (MONC). PM Manele acknowledged the ruling against his appeal and set Parliament to convene on 7 May. Earlier, on 26 April, the Member of Parliament for South New Georgia Rendova and Tetepari, David Gina, defected from the 28-member opposition and was sworn in as Minister for Rural Development, raising the Government’s numbers to 23. Media have reported the likely candidates for prime minister include Peter Shanel Agovaka, leader of the largest party within the new coalition, Frederick Koloqeto, Gordon Darcy Lilo, Rick Hounipwela, and Leader of the Opposition, Matthew Wale.

Assessment: With 27 members, the opposition holds a narrow but sufficient majority in the 50-member parliament and is likely to win the MONC. Since the MONC was tabled on 16 March, the government has been unsuccessful in drawing MPs away from the opposition to its side. Regarding the next PM, Peter Shanel Agovaka is the only person who has publicly claimed the opposition has offered him the position. Agovaka was the Foreign Minister under PM Manele and it is highly likely that the opposition offered him the prime ministership to secure his defection. However, coalition bargaining post a successful MONC vote is likely to see other contenders. A wildcard scenario could see PM Manele use any turmoil to rebuild his coalition and regain the prime ministership. 

No major street protests have occurred during the ongoing political instability, including around the court rulings. However, the risk of rioting remains elevated on the day of the MONC vote due to last minute political jockeying. Therefore, the threat to stability remains assessed as medium, trending upward, with the potential for incidents to occur in Honiara.

Sources: Ronald Toito'ona, “Court Showdown Ends In Defeat For AG, Parliament To Be Convened,” Indepth Solomons, 1 May  2026; “PRIME MINISTER ACKNOWLEDGES COURT OF APPEAL RULING,” Solomon Islands Government Portal, 1 May  2026; Ronald Toito'ona, “Gina Leaves Opposition Coalition, Joins Manele-led GNUT As New Minister For Rural Development,” Indepth Solomons, 26 April 2026; Koroi Hawkins, “Who could be the next Prime Minister of Solomon Islands?,” RNZ, 4 May 2026; Robert Iroga, “Parliament to Convene on May 7 Following Court of Appeal Ruling,” SBM Online, 5 May 2026.