Region: Government cyclone season preparations likely to reduce some impact from extreme weather
Following the Earth Sciences New Zealand forecast announcement of 5 to 9 tropical cycles during the 2025-2026 season, several Pacific Island countries have warned their respective populations to make preparations:
Tonga. Around 25 October, the Tonga Meteorological Service announced that the country is expected to experience one to two tropical cyclones during the 2024–2025 cyclone season, with a 60% chance of one being severe (Category 3–5).
Fiji. On 27 October, the Fiji National Disaster Management Office confirmed that 900 evacuation centres are being set up across the country.
Vanuatu. The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department announced on 1 November that the nation could expect two to four named cyclones between November and April.
New Caledonia. Meteorologists reported that weak La Niña conditions are likely to bring warmer and more humid weather, increasing the likelihood of rain and thunderstorms in the coming months.
Assessment: The announcements demonstrate each country’s commitment to ensuring the safety and preparedness of its citizens. The announcements are likely to reduce some casualties and damage the cyclone season. However, due to a combination of fragile construction techniques, varied levels of private preparation, and increasing severity of extreme weather, impacts are still highly likely to require international assistance to respond and recover.
Sources: “Tonga set for 1-2 cyclones, 60% chance of severe hit,” Talanoa o Tonga, October 25, 2025; Erik Dufour and Christian Favennec, “WEATHER. With La Niña, the weather will be warmer, more humid, and more prone to cyclones in New Caledonia in the coming months,” NC 1ère, October 27, 2025; Kelera Ditaiki, “Fiji prepared more than 900 evacuation centre,” FBC, October 27, 2025; Anita Roberts, “Cyclone season starts,” Daily Post, November 1, 2025.
