Tonga: Prime Minister faces second no confidence vote in third year in office

On 23 November, a motion of no confidence (MONC) was moved against Prime Minister Hu'akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni. The motion was presented by Dr. 'Eke and supported by nine of the total 26 members of parliament. It is the second MONC against the Prime Minister by Dr. Aisake 'Eke - the previous was defeated in September 2023 by 11 votes to 14. The vote for the motion is expected to take place on 9 December 2024. 

Assessment: Prime Minister Sovaleni defeated Dr ‘Eke’s previous MONC by a narrow margin. There has been no indication of MPs switching allegiance in current reporting which indicates that this vote will also be close. There are three possible outcomes: Sovaleni wins the MONC vote, ‘Eke wins the MONC and becomes PM, or Sovaleni resigns ahead of the vote if he believes he cannot win. Regardless of the outcome, government activity is likely to decline in the lead up to the vote and for any post-vote re-organisation. Political violence is highly unlikely.

Sources:  “Second motion of no confidence planned against Tongan Prime Minister Hu'akavameiliku,”RNZ, 25 November 2024; Don Wiseman, "Tongan Opposition Claims Support for No Confidence Vote Against Hu'akavameiliku Close to Election," RNZ, November 28, 2024; “Motion for vote of no confidence to be tabled on 3 December,” Matangi Tonga, 26 November 2024.