West Papua: Indonesia likely to influence Papua New Guinea and Fiji not to recognise the West Papua Provisional Government

Around 17 July, Vanuatu’s Special Envoy for West Papua, Morris Kaloran, appealed to Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) members to upgrade the United Liberation Movement of West Papua’s (ULMWP) status from an observer to associate or full member. Kaloran’s statement follows the inauguration of a ULMWP Provisional Government, comprising 2,340 representatives, with Benny Wenda and Edison Waromi sworn in as president and prime minister, respectively. The inauguration occurred around 10 July 2025. Kaloran urged the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNCHR) to directly communicate with representatives of the Provisional Government and support an overdue fact-finding mission to West Papua. He encouraged the Vanuatu Government to officially notify the Indonesian Government that it recognises the Provisional Government. He urged civil societies to revive the  “Free West Papua” campaign, warning of lost momentum and the need for renewed regional action.

Assessment: The Provisional Government endorsed the 2023 ULMWP Congress resolutions and mandated the Vanuatu Government and the International Lawyers of West Papua (ILWP) to represent the case for self-determination internationally. Vanuatu is likely to notify Indonesia of the official recognition of the Provisional Government. Indonesia is likely to engage MSG member states, especially Papua New Guinea and Fiji, to deflect support for independence in West Papua.

Sources: Ezra Toara, “Special Envoy asks Vanuatu to send diplomatic note to Indonesia recognising West Papua Provisional Government,” Daily Post, July 17, 2025; “Implementing democracy before independence: ULMWP inaugurates thousands of representatives,” ULMWP, July 10, 2025.