West Papua: Latest attack and Indonesian security operation a symptom of ongoing escalation rather than a trigger

Media have reported that 4-6 civilians have been killed by Indonesian security forces since 31 March. The individuals were allegedly shot during security operations in surrounding villages following the stabbing of a police officer in Moanemani, Central Papua Province. Indonesian officials state the deceased individuals were part of an armed criminal group.

Assessment: Escalating violence has been ongoing since at least May 2025, as Indonesia has increased the number of security forces to protect large scale land conversion and agricultural development programmes (see SPI #21, of 8-21 May 2025). This incident demonstrates the type of activity occurring as part of the ongoing escalation in violence rather than a specific escalation trigger. The incident occurred in a different area to the aviation threat and kidnapping from mid-January (see SPI #38, of 14-27 January 2026). Indonesian security force operations, attacks on isolated or vulnerable Indonesian security forces, and attacks and hostage-takings targeting western aligned businesses are highly likely to continue in West Papua over the medium-term.

Sources: Veronica Koman, “31/3/26 Dogiyai, West Papua,” X post, 1 April 1, 2026; Veronica Koman, “https://x.com/VeronicaKoman/status/2039540475263340707,” X post, 2 April 1, 2026 “At least five Papuans reported dead as violence explodes in Dogiyai,” RNZ, April 5, 2026.