Bougainville: Autonomous Government remains focused on three year transition to independence

Around 29 September, the Bougainville Constituent Assembly deliberated on the draft Constitution for the proposed independent state, the Republic of North Solomons. Bougainville’s independence is currently pending a Papua New Guinea Parliamentary decision  on the outcome of the 2019 independence referendum.

Assessment: The ABG has previously outlined a three year transition to independence beginning in September 2027 and is unlikely to agree to any offer that significantly extends this timeline. PM Marape has been critical of ABG’s governance structures and economic viability to support itself post-independence, on 22 June he suggesteding a 15 year transition (see SPI 50, 17-30 June 2026). Both governments’ inability to agree on a date for the parliamentary vote is most likely an attempt for extra time to negotiate solutions on a way forward. While further delays to the process are likely to occur, it is unlikely to cause widespread violence even though isolated low level incidents involving residents from both constituencies are possible.

Source: “BCA continues deliberations on draft Constitution,” AROB, official website, 29 September 2026.