Region: Country El Niño Assessments
On 3 September, the World Meteorological Organization issued an updated El Niño forecast, predicting a peak toward November–December and a near 100% certainty that conditions will continue to February 2027. In the Pacific, El Niño generally increases severe drought, water shortages, heatwaves, and wildfires in Papua New Guinea, Palau, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, and Niue, while heavy rainfall, flooding, and tidal surges are typical for Naoero, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the northern Cook Islands.
Current conditions by country:
PNG. 15 provinces are currently assessed as under extreme drought, five as severe, and the remaining two are yet to be assessed. Reporting indicates rivers and lakes used for drinking water, irrigation, as a food source, and as a transport corridor have severely contracted in several provinces. Unusual hail and frost in the Highlands has also affected up to half the traditional food supply to the capital. Since June, capital power providers have indicated power rationing was likely from July 2026 to April 2027, particularly as the river that contributes to hydropower generation is also the main source of Port Moresby's drinking water. On 7 October, this river was at 53% capacity and decreasing; it is expected to be unavailable for hydropower generation at a point between 8 November 2026 and 7 January 2027. Transporting relief to remote communities is a major difficulty for the PNG Government – two provinces requested support with transport and wildfire fighting directly from Australia in October. The government has told provincial authorities to lead local interventions rather than waiting for the central government. Assessment: Some provinces have taken significant measures, such as reprioritising funds and improving water infrastructure; however, this is likely to remain uneven. The central government is also likely to have less financial support available for distribution due to ongoing fuel disruption subsidies. As El Niño conditions continue to strengthen over November–December – and their human effects worsen from November–March – the government will struggle to manage simultaneous challenges in provincial areas and the capital.
Solomon Islands. Beginning in June, natural water source shortages have been noted in Gizo, Western Province, and northern Choiseul. Solomon Water has also been advising customers in Honiara and Malaita to conserve water in order to avoid future rationing. There has been ad hoc reporting of community-level preventative measures, such as the installation of water tanks. While the national government has stated the country is currently under a "watch" with plans to request financial support, little detail on government contingencies has been released. Assessment: Poor information flows between communities, provincial governments, and the central government are likely to prevent effective monitoring and force the government to react to critical situations rather than be proactive. Water infrastructure in Honiara is also fragile under normal circumstances, making the capital's population significantly vulnerable as conditions worsen. Difficulty transporting relief to islands beyond Guadalcanal will also challenge future response operations, likely requiring international support.
Vanuatu. On 28 September, the Vanuatu Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services stated a 90% chance of below-average rainfall over October–December 2026. The strongest phase was expected over November 2026–January 2027. In July, drought was declared in parts of Vanuatu's four northern provinces, with relief packages approved for Torba and Penama Provinces in September. Over August and September, villagers in Eratap and Teouma on Efate warned that ongoing drought and the cumulative effects of previous natural hazards risked their ability to provide normal levels of agricultural produce to Port Vila. Vanuatu is also currently facing several disease outbreaks and elevated volcanic activity. Assessment: The Vanuatu Government has been successfully managing multiple ongoing provincial-level emergencies. It has a well-developed natural hazard and climate monitoring system and has been responding to El Niño in a targeted and proactive manner since May. The government is likely to continue to manage the effects in this manner, but is likely to request international support if a major event occurs, such as a tropical cyclone or earthquake.
Fiji. The national government began developing El Niño contingency plans in May 2026. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has been working closely with Energy Fiji Ltd and the Water Authority of Fiji to monitor conditions and enact these contingencies – Fiji relies on hydro for around 60% of its power generation. Around 11 August, the Water Authority of Fiji confirmed it has activated dry-weather contingencies across all three regions, and on 17 September, NDMO noted that humanitarian clusters had been directed to prepare more detailed contingency plans regarding water, food, health, and security. Since 18 September, emergency water distribution operations have been providing relief to an expanding list of outer island communities, with the NDMO stating the Western and Northern Divisions are currently most at risk. Assessment: Constitutional reform and a general election over November 2026–February 2027 is likely to drive Prime Minister Rabuka's Government to respond swiftly as El Niño conditions worsen over the same period. Requests for international support are likely to take the form of financial support, as has occurred during the global fuel disruption, or specialist technical equipment to enhance water infrastructure as this is required in an increasing number of locations.
Tonga. On 12 October, authorities maintained Drought Declarations for Niuatoputapu, Ha'apai, Tongatapu, and 'Eua. Niuafo'ou remains under a Drought Warning. Vava'u remains under Drought Alert. Dry conditions have been reported over June–September across Tonga and a very high chance of very dry conditions is forecast through to December. Beginning 31 July, Tonga's National Disaster Risk Management Office has been carrying out pre-emptive drinking water continuity operations and emergency water relief across four island groups. In addition to drought over the next 3–6 months, increased severity of category 3–5 tropical cyclones is expected during the November 2026–April 2027 season. On average, Tonga experiences 2–4 TCs each season, with 2 in the category 3–5 range. Assessment: Tonga's preventative actions have so far been effective, with little reporting on crisis situations developing in any of the island groups. However, as El Niño conditions worsen from November 2027, international support for water relief supplies and assistance with transport to outer islands is likely.
Samoa. On 17 August, the Samoa Meteorological Service officially declared El Niño across the country. Water shortages, dry vegetation, and bushfires have been the priority risks communicated to the public. Assessment: El Niño appears to be affecting Samoa less when compared to Tonga and the Melanesian countries. Wildfires are currently the focus of significant public communication, as well as training and preparation by the Samoa fire and emergency services authority.
Niue. Around 12 October, Niue raised its alert level to "imminent risk of drought," following six wildfires that had damaged water infrastructure and agriculture. New Zealand has provided a 4WD firefighting vehicle, drone, and a technical team to help mitigate the elevated fire risk. During the week of 17 August, the intergovernmental organisation Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme assisted Niue Met Service officials to develop a national El Niño Directive. Assessment: As a small nation, Niue has less resilient material infrastructure compared to other South Pacific nations and is most likely to have a lower threshold to request international assistance as conditions worsen.
Cook Islands. On 14 September, the Meteorological Service indicated the usual rainy season over November–December was likely to be delayed and an increased frequency of tropical cyclones is expected as they develop further to the east under El Niño conditions. Earlier, the Cook Islands Meteorological Service issued an historical analysis of strong El Niño events that indicated the Northern Cooks experience above-average rain over January–March, while the Southern Cooks experience above-average dryness over April, June, and December. Around 8 October, authorities warned the public of increased fire risk due to extra dry and windy conditions.
Sources: various.
