Cook Islands: China increases influence through vague agreement

Over 13-14 February, the Cook Islands Prime Minister, Mark Brown, will sign a number of agreements with China, including a Comprehensive Partnership Agreement. New Zealand had been seeking details on the agreements for up to one month - as a self-governing state in free association with New Zealand, consultation around foreign affairs and security are required between the two countries prior to such agreements. Details have not been released to New Zealand or the Cooks Islands public, although PM Brown has stated key topics include aquaculture, fisheries, deep sea mining, an inter-island vessel, and that loans are not part of the agreements.

Assessment: It is a common tactic across the Pacific for details to be withheld when China signs bilateral agreements. The ambiguity in process and wording will allow China to use the agreement in any way it needs to in the future. Maritime components to the agreement will almost certainly allow Chinese vessels to use Cook Islands’ port infrastructure and exploit fisheries. “Comprehensive” agreements are the highest tier of bilateral partnership China offers to other states - Solomon Islands is the only other South Pacific state at this level. The lack of consultation in spite of formal mechanisms demonstrates a decline in New Zealand’s regional influence.

Sources: Caleb Fotheringham, “Mark Brown on China Deal: 'No Need for New Zealand to Sit in the Room with Us',” RNZ, February 7, 2025; Koroi Hawkins, “Cook Islands PM Flying to China without Consulting NZ – Government,” RNZ, February 9, 2025; “'Significant Concern': NZ, Cook Islands Relationship Worsens,” Islands Business, February 11, 2025; Prianka Srinivasan and Virginia Harrison, “Mapped: The Vast Network of Security Deals Spanning the Pacific, and What It Means,” The Guardian, July 9, 2024; John Lee, “What's in a Name? A Rough Guide to China's Elaborate Labeling of Bilateral Relations with Europe,” MERICS, July 9, 2024.