Kiribati: Maamau almost certain to retain presidency despite opposition boycott

The Opposition in Kiribati are encouraging a boycott of the 25 October 2024 presidential election. All three candidates put forward by the Parliament following the mid-August general election are from the ruling Tobwaan Kiribati Party (TKP), and current President Taneti Maamau is expected to win. Opposition leaders argue that the exclusion of any opposition candidates, has left voters without a genuine democratic choice. The call for a boycott is supported by former President Sir Ieremia Tabai.

Assessment: The purpose of the Opposition’s boycott is an attempt to undermine President Maamau’s confidence in a popular mandate as he sets policies and carries out the Government’s new programme of work. It also maintains international awareness of perceived authoritarianism given the caretaker Government’s suspension of diplomatic and official visits while the new Government forms. The Opposition is not seeking to undermine or disrupt the electoral process itself. Violence on election day is unlikely given the lack of intent for it expressed by the Opposition and the peaceful nature of the August round of elections despite tense runoffs. The level of support for the boycott is unclear and it is more likely to be effective in the same areas that opposition MPs were successful during the August election. Throughout the new term, the Opposition is likely to seek to capitalise on the theme of authoritarian decision-making and failure to provide basic services.