New Caledonia: Further security created for ongoing political negotiation
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced during his inaugural speech that New Caledonia’s proposed constitutional reform will not proceed. In May, the reforms triggered violent protests from pro-independence groups who saw them as diluting the indigenous Kanak vote. Provincial elections scheduled for December 2024 will also be postponed to late 2025. President Macron is hosting New Caledonian political leaders in November, after which a mission to New Caledonia by Cabinet, National Assembly, and Senate leaders will occur. According to media reporting, the intent of the mission is to find a successor to the 1998 Nouméa Accords, the original agreement over the territory’s pathway to autonomy.
On the ground in New Caledonia, five individuals from Saint Louis surrendered to French authorities around 1 October. The individuals are charged with the attempted murder of law enforcement officers and armed theft. Local tribal authorities assisted in the surrender of the individuals, who had evaded several raids by French authorities. Roadblocks to the north and south of the village are one of the few remaining roadblocks on the island, forcing residents to travel on foot or by boat.
Assessment: Politically motivated violence has been reduced to isolated incidents by the increased security presence and the withdraw of support from tribal leaders and moderate leaning pro-independence group. The President Macron meeting and Congressional Mission will be key indicators of the direction of further political negotiations around a renewed pathway to increased autonomy but are unlikely to be conclusive. Political negotiation will be a long-term process with iterative agreements. A security force reduction is likely over the next 2 months but total force numbers will remain elevated to meet potential flashpoints. Flashpoints include the reaction of pro-independence groups to the upcoming meetings and mission, further arrests of suspects related the recent violence, and the remaining roadblocks.
