New Caledonia: Bougival agreement almost certainly to be pursued despite opposition by pro-Independence groups

Over 9-10 August, FLNKS, New Caledonia’s pro-Independence umbrella organisation, announced a unanimous rejection of the Bougival agreement. Union Calédonienne (UC), the dominant political party within FLNKS, earlier claimed that the agreement does not reflect a path to decolonisation or adequate support for Kanak nationality and culture. Furthermore, UC specifically blamed President Macron’s stance during the negotiations for the tone of the agreement. Several civil society groups within FLNKS also publicly rejected the agreement on similar grounds, noting that “Kanak” is not mentioned once in the document. FLNKS President, Christian Tein, outlined during the meeting that they now sought bilateral negotiations over full sovereignty. Following the announcement, French Minister for Overseas and lead negotiator, Manual Valls, stated he will be in New Caledonia from 18 August to continue talks.

Assessment: Minister Valls will almost certainly continue to implement the Bougival agreement. He will seek to bring FLNKS into the drafting committee required by the agreement to produce the necessary constitutional amendments for its implementation. Christian Tein is highly likely to take an increased leadership role in the FLNKS negotiating team, with the UC President, Emmanuel Tjibaou, and the other FLNKS signatories to Bougival having been removed. Despite Tein being a hardliner within FLNKS (he is currently awaiting trial in France for instigating the May 2024 riots), he has committed the organisation to further negotiations. Greater Kanak representation can be brought out through the agreement’s drafting process. A separate meeting of economic actors, supported by Minister Valls, stated that no economic recovery can begin while political uncertainty continues, highlighting the construction, nickel, and other metals industries as at particular risk.

Sources: Thérèse Waïa, Carawiane Carawiane, Coralie Cochin, “L’UC rejette en bloc l’accord de Bougival et annonce un congrès du FLNKS le 9 août,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), 31 July 2025; “Accord de Nouvelle‑Calédonie: Manuel Valls annonce un nouveau rendez‑vous la semaine prochaine,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), 2 August 2025; Charlotte Mannevy, “L’USTKE et l’EPKNC rejettent également l’accord sur l’avenir de la Nouvelle‑Calédonie,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), 3 August 2025; “Accord Nouvelle‑Calédonie : le 45ᵉ congrès du FLNKS aurait confirmé le rejet,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), 10 August 2025; Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Accord Nouvelle‑Calédonie : Manuel Valls réagit après le congrès du FLNKS et annonce sa venue à la mi‑août,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), 10 August 2025; Anne-Claire Lévêque and Valentin Deleforterie, “Le monde économique calédonien s’inquiète de la fragilité de l’accord de Bougival,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), 8 August 2025.