New Caledonia: Civil unrest likely to decrease as negotiations over long-term status begin

Over 16-20 October, the French Minister for Overseas, François-Noël Buffet, visited New Caledonia and conducted dialogue with a wide range of actors, including pro-independence opposition groups. Buffet announced funding and loans, with a priority on rebuilding public buildings. Local loyalists have said the funding is not enough, with issues around the ability of private companies to rebuild and gain insurance cover. A further high-level delegation is scheduled in the coming weeks, and President Macron wishes to host New Caledonia’s political leaders before the end of 2024. The curfew in place has been extended until early November, and the increased security forces will also remain in place until the new year.

Assessment: A leader from the Union Calédonienne (UC), the main pro-independence party behind the unrest that began in May, expressed satisfaction with his meeting and believed progress toward greater independence could come from further dialogue. It is likely that the result of further high level meetings will result in an outline plan for formal negotiation to begin to find a replacement to the Noumea Accord. The UC’s support for dialogue, as the most radical pro-independence group, indicates civil unrest will continue to decrease as negotiations proceed.