New Caledonia: Continued isolated incidents of violence highly likely while political negotiations stall
On 8 May, Minister Valls departed New Caledonia after talks on the territory's political future stalled. The French Government’s position to increase New Caledonia’s sovereignty while retaining key security, diplomatic, and economic responsibilities was rejected by pro-France groups. Isolated clashes followed on the outskirts of Nouméa and other parts of the territory involving roadblocks, arson, and stone throwing. Subsequently, security was increased over 12-15 May to cover the first anniversary of the 13 May 2024 riots. Public marches and demonstrations were banned, as well as limitations on the sale of takeaway alcohol, firearms, and ammunition. Police reported that 20 incidents occurred during the night of 13 May involving further roadblocks, stone throwing at moving vehicles and law enforcement personnel in the wider Nouméa area, as well as a prison escape from the Koné detention centre. On 12 May, an arson attack on a transformer temporarily disrupted internet and telephone services north of the La Tontouta airport.
Assessment: Unlike previous talks, no dates have been given for future multilateral negotiations, almost certainly indicating the lack of a clear way forward by Minister Valls. Where focus has previously been on progressing sovereignty to appeal to the pro-Independence groups, negotiations will now have to bring the pro-France groups onboard. Isolated incidents of violence are highly likely to continue while the issue remains unresolved. Incidents will be the type experienced during this period around Saint-Louis, and Païta on the road between Nouméa and La Tontouta airport. These incidents will cause minor and temporary disruptions to travel, but will remain isolated and within the ability of the enhanced security force presence to control.
Sources: Franc̜oise Tromeur, “13 Mai : une nuit symbolique marquée par quelques incidents et quatre interpellations,” May 13, 2025; Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Sécurité : une vingtaine de faits dans la nuit selon le haut‑commissariat,” May 14, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia’s Political Talks: No Outcome After Three Days of Conclave,” RNZ, May 8, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia Tightens Security Following Aborted Political Talks Ahead of Riots’ First Anniversary,” RNZ, May 12, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia’s Political Future ‘Not a Pacific Problem, It’s Our Own’, Says Ponga,” RNZ, May 20, 2025.
