New Caledonia: Extreme pro-Independence group creates uncertainty around recent political agreement

Union Calédonienne (UC), the most extreme pro-Independence party, has publicly indicated it may not support the Bougival agreement signed on 12 July. On 21 July, a UC press release stated that the agreement does not reflect a real pathway to greater cultural recognition, increased sovereignty, and full independence. They further stated that the party membership must endorse the agreement, and a final decision will be made on 2 August. Moderate pro-Independence groups and pro-France groups have met with their members and indicated continued support for the agreement. France has deployed close protection personnel in response to online threats against the signatories.

Assessment:  French officials are likely to make one-on-one contact with UC leaders to encourage them to uphold the Bougival agreement. UC’s failure to endorse the agreement will create additional uncertainty and require French officials to either proceed with the February referendum or re-enter negotiations with all parties. The French Government is highly likely to avoid the latter as it would delay the territory’s recovery further - they are likely instead to appeal directly to the populace ahead of the referendum by highlighting the agreement’s aspects that support increased Kanak nationality. Targeted political violence against the signatories is likely to originate from extreme and isolated members of the UC but target other groups or UC leaders who speak out in support of the agreement. Large-scale protests and riots are less likely and will almost certainly be contained by French security forces if they occur.