New Caledonia: France likely to continue with Bougival Agreement despite fall of French Government

On 8 September, French Prime Minister Franc̜ois Bayrou failed a motion of no confidence in the French Parliament. Subsequently, Manual Valls, Minister for Overseas and key negotiator of the Bougival Agreement with New Caledonia, will also depart with the removal of PM Bayrou’s cabinet. PM Bayrou was ousted by a significant margin after calling on support for a contested budget. He had only served nine months in the role. 

Assessment: Regardless of the composition of the new French Government, they are likely to continue with the Bougival process. President Macron was a significant driver of the negotiations and is unlikely to see it shelved. Aside from the FLNKS, the signatories will almost certainly wish to continue after the effort and time that went into its negotiation. A new government is highly unlikely to offer a better set of terms or have the capacity to devote to fresh negotiations, considering the urgency required for issues on mainland France, including a new budget.

Source: Patrick Decloitre, “More Uncertainty for New Caledonia as French Government Falls,” RNZ Pacific, September 9, 2025.