New Caledonia: Local issues exacerbated by ongoing political tension, centralised large scale violence unlikely while political negotiations continue
Over 2-7 June, clashes between local groups occurred in Touho, a village in northern New Caledonia. According to media reporting, initial conflict involved around 10 armed young people firing at vehicles and homes, though all injuries were from hand-to-hand violence against women and children. Five days later, on 7 June, a group of 70 sought revenge, resulting in a stand-off with a smaller group of 20 following security force intervention - 3 houses were burned down during the night, but no weapon use was reported. Subsequently, local leaders issued an eviction notice to a “healer” and their followers, who had been causing tension in the village for four years.
Separately, a ban on alcohol and the carriage of weapons was decreed for Bélep, an island off the north of New Caledonia, from 6 June to 6 July. A similar ban on alcohol and firearms from 7-9 June was placed on Voh, Koné, and Pouembout, three adjacent villages on the northwest coast. According to the Commissioner for the Northern Province, inter-tribal tensions have been ongoing in Bélep since 2020, while Voh, Koné, and Pouembout will host a large event on Saturday 8 June.
Additionally, on 12 June, pro-independence leader, Christian Téin, and four other militants were released from custody in France. Téin is required to stay in France pending his trial for his role in the May 2024 riots - he is the head of Union Calédonienne’s (UC) Field Action Coordinating Cell. Since being released, Téin has stated he is sorry for the May 2024 violence and does not wish for more.
Assessment: The ongoing uncertainty initiated by the May 2024 riots creates an environment for local issues to be expressed as violence. The increased security presence has been able to proactively identify and address a number of these incidents and will continue to do so. Where they have not been able to proactively identify hotspots, security forces have been able to respond and contain the violence within hours. While UC remains involved in political negotiations, centralised coordination of political violence remains unlikely - any change is likely to be voiced by its leaders following unsatisfactory negotiations. Localised incidents are the most likely form of violence, with residual tensions, alcohol, and large gatherings the key initiators.
Sources: Joanna Robin, “Mesures administratives : interdictions d’alcool à Belep, Koné, Voh et Pouembout,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 20, 2025; Coralie Cochin and Sylvie Hmuen, “Sept personnes placées en garde à vue après des violences à Touho,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 21, 2025; Joanna Robin and Charlotte Mestre, “Conflit à Touho : regain de tensions entre les deux tribus au col de Mission,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 22, 2025; Sylvie Hmuen and Joanna Robin, “Tensions à Touho : une quarantaine de personnes expulsées après quatre années de troubles,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 24, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “Téin Released from French Jail after Appeal Fails,” RNZ, June 26, 2025; Jeanne Péru-Gelly, “Après sa libération, Christian Tein prend la parole : ‘Je suis le premier désolé de ce qui s’est passé’ lors des émeutes en Nouvelle-Calédonie,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 28, 2025.
