New Caledonia: Mid-June talks with President Macron highly likely to relieve short term uncertainty, further rounds of talks are almost certain to still be required

On 27 May, President Macron’s office announced all New Caledonian parties involved in ongoing political negotiations would be invited to Paris to continue talks in mid-June. President Macron has not stated that Minister Valls has been removed from the negotiation process, and both pro-France and pro-Independence groups have expressed support for the talks. The FLNKS, the extreme pro-independence grouping dominated by Union Calédonie, has stated they will not “go below” the previous government’s offer of increased sovereignty. However, they have also expressed concern that President Macron favours the pro-France groups. On 23 May, a pro-France member of parliament was the first to announce the mid-June talks after meeting in person with the President.

Assessment: The announcement will relieve some uncertainty in New Caledonia after Minister Valls failed talks earlier in May. The fact that both groups have indicated support for the talks is also a positive sign for short-term stability in the territory. Minor concessions will likely be made to the pro-France group, but the overall intent of increased sovereignty will dominate the framework sought. It is unlikely that a final political settlement will be achieved during the mid-June talks, given that President Macron has not built the same negotiating relationships that Minister Valls has throughout the previous rounds of negotiations - further rounds of talks are almost certain.

Sources: Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Celui qui s’occupe du dossier de la Nouvelle‑Calédonie, c’est moi, martèle Manuel Valls,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 10, 2025; “Emmanuel Macron va inviter indépendantistes et non‑indépendantistes à Paris à partir de la mi‑juin, annonce l’Élysée,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 12, 2025; Joanna Robin, Charlotte Mestre, Franck Vergès, “Avenir institutionnel de la Nouvelle‑Calédonie : les partis politiques satisfaits de l’invitation d’Emmanuel Macron à Paris,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 13, 2025; Quentin Menu, “Impasse des discussions sur la Nouvelle‑Calédonie à l’Assemblée nationale : les deux députés calédoniens expriment leurs inquiétudes,” La 1ère (Franceinfo), June 18, 2025.