New Caledonia: New French Government is highly unlikely to deviate from implementing the Bougival Agreement, with or without FLNKS
On 12 October, Naïma Moutchou was appointed as Minister for Overseas under the Lecornu Government. Laurent Prévost, New Caledonia’s High Commissioner from 2019-2021, was subsequently appointed head of the Minister’s office, having served in this position under two previous Ministers. On 19 October, Minister Moutchou stated via media that dialogue with FLNKS will be pursued to return the pro-independence grouping to the Bougival Agreement. Meanwhile, media reporting indicates that FLNKS President, Christian Tein, will remain in Paris during the parliamentary debate over the proposed law to delay provincial elections until 2026, despite the Court of Appeal confirming that Tein is authorised to return to New Caledonia while awaiting the investigation outcome into his alleged role in the 2024 riots. During a 17 October press conference, FLNKS reiterated its opposition to delayed provincial elections. The parliamentary debate takes place on 22 October.
Assessment: Despite public overtures to FLNKS, the new French Government is highly unlikely to deviate from implementing the Bougival Agreement, with or without FLNKS support. Minister Moutchou has been a member of parliament since 2017 after a career in corporate law, and is a member of the centre-right, pro-Macron Horizons party. Prévost and Prime Minister Lecornu – as then Minister of Defence – were responsible for pushing through the controversial third referendum under the Nouméa Accord during the COVID-19 pandemic. FLNKS is increasingly likely to seek opportunities to protest the ongoing implementation of the agreement, through public demonstrations and actions within New Caledonia’s Congress – these actions are also likely to be tied to campaigning to vote against the agreement during the referendum which must take place before 28 February 2026.
Sources: Célia Cléry and Jean-Claude Samyde, “Gouvernement Lecornu 2: Naïma Moutchou est la nouvelle ministre des Outre-mer,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 12 2025; Coralie Cochin, “Retour en terrain connu pour Laurent Prévost, nommé directeur de cabinet de la ministre des Outre-mer,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 18 2025; Coralie Cochin, “Je ne veux pas faire sans le FLNKS : la ministre des Outre-mer pose sa méthode pour la suite de l’accord de Bougival,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 19 2025; Mathieu Ruiz Barraud, Maëlys Vésir, and Coralie Cochin, “Christian Tein autorisé à rentrer en Calédonie : une grande satisfaction pour le FLNKS, une décision incompréhensible pour le Rassemblement LR,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 17 2025; Maëlys Vésir and Coralie Cochin, “Le FLNKS réaffirme sa volonté de maintenir les provinciales en novembre 2025,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 17 2025; Maëlys Vésir, Carawiane Carawiane, and Sarra Mejeri, “Vote du Sénat en faveur du report des élections provinciales : l’Union Calédonienne dénonce un passage en force, le Palika salue une avancée,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 16 2025; Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Le report des provinciales passe l’étape du Sénat : réactions calédoniennes,” La 1ère / franceinfo, October 16 2025.
