New Caledonia: New pro-France political leadership prioritises economic situation rather than political future

On 10 July, pro-France candidate Virginie Reffenach was elected President of Congress (House Speaker) following the 28 June provincial and general election. On 31 July, Milakulo Tukumuli, head of the minor centrist party L'Éveil Océanien (EO – Oceanian Awakening), was elected President of the New Caledonian Government. Both votes reflected a traditional pro-independence and pro-France split, with the addition of the centrist EO supporting the pro-France bloc as per a pre-election agreement. Cabinet ministers have been drawn from all parties represented in Congress following New Caledonia's collegial government rules. One pro-independence leader stated they see an ability to cooperate with President of Congress Reffenach. President Tukumuli has since announced a dire economic situation, allocated himself and pro-France cabinet members key finance and economic portfolios, and announced a bi-partisan delegation to Paris to seek further financial support.

Assessment: President Tukumuli's initial announcements and portfolio actions indicate a priority focus on economic issues rather than political negotiations over the territory's independence status. Despite the dominance of pro-France parties in key leadership roles, negotiations over independence will continue to be multi-party — no group gained a decisive majority in the overall vote count. While commercial banks now refuse to lend money to New Caledonia and the French State has made further financial support conditional upon economic reforms, it is highly likely that the French State and New Caledonian Congress will not allow government services to halt.

Sources: Françoise Tromeur, Lizzie Carboni, “Un scénario écrit d’avance, pour l’installation du Congrès après les provinciales 2026 en Nouvelle-Calédonie,” Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère, 10 July 2026; Théo Rouby, Françoise Tromeur, “Nouveau gouvernement calédonien : Milakulo Tukumuli président, Christopher Gygès vice-président,” Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère, 31 July 2026; Xavier Serre, “Le 19e gouvernement face à l’urgence : trouver 13 milliards de francs CFP avant la fin août et le "shutdown complet",” Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère, 6 August 2026; Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia's new president unveils cabinet portfolios,” RNZ, 6 August 2026.