New Caledonia: Political agreement almost certain to continue to reduce tensions

On 12 July, all parties signed an agreement on the political future of New Caledonia. New Caledonia will gain greater sovereignty in some areas but will remain within France, described as the first of its kind construct as a state within the French Republic. The agreement will be put to a referendum in New Caledonia in February 2026, and if passed, will be enshrined as an article within the French Constitution. All sides agreed to expand those eligible to vote in New Caledonia elections, the key trigger to the May 2024 riots. New Caledonians will remain French citizens but can also be classed as New Caledonian “nationals.” Powers of diplomacy will be gradually transferred while remaining under France’s broader interests. Currency, defence, and justice will remain under France, but with greater formal cooperation and consultation mechanisms. New Caledonia will be able to create its own provincial and traditional police forces with French national forces also retaining jurisdictional responsibilities. Both pro-France and pro-Independence leaders made positive public comments in support of the agreement and acknowledged that compromises were made. Provincial elections have also been delayed once more to May or June 2026, after the referendum and new general election to be held in February 2026.

Assessment: Finalisation of a way forward and support from all pro-France and pro-independence groups will almost certainly continue to reduce tensions within New Caledonia (continuing incidents have been the result of local issues rather than national political tensions anyhow, see SPI#23 of 2-18 June 2025). While some security forces may be withdrawn, an enhanced security presence is highly likely to remain to cover the February 2026 referendum and general elections, and the Provincial elections in May or June 2026.

Sources: Patrick Decloitre, “Macron Suggests New Options for New Caledonia’s Future Status,” RNZ, 5 July 2025; Julie Straboni, “Accord Nouvelle‑Calédonie : que contient le texte signé par les représentants politiques à Bougival,” 13 July 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia’s Political Parties Commit to Historic Deal in France,” RNZ, 14 July 2025; Coralie Cochin, “Décryptage : Accord Nouvelle‑Calédonie – que signifie la notion d’‘État’ ?,” 14 July 2025.