New Caledonia: Political negotiations likely to continue beyond stated deadlines
On 30 April, multilateral talks over New Caledonia’s political future were put on hold due to tension between the negotiating groups. Prior to the talks, Minister Valls indicated this would be the final round of negotiations, resulting in an agreement to accommodate both the right to self-determination and a link with France. However, during a party convention immediately prior to the talks, one faction within the pro-Independence group determined they were not empowered to negotiate final settlements. Talks were scheduled to restart over 5-7 May 2025, while bilateral discussion would continue.
Assessment: Work toward a final settlement is highly likely to continue after 7 May as the extreme pro-Independence group, represented by Union Calédonienne (UC), holds out for more concessions. UC has stated publicly that it is seeking a guarantee of independence within 5 years - the convention decision to not enter negotiations likely reflects an attempt to move the talks toward this goal. Ongoing uncertainty and political tension will possibly cause isolated incidents of political violence, but these will be within the capacity of the increased security force presence to resolve.
Sources: Marie-Gwenaell Gohe, Caroline Antic-Martin, Joanna Robin, “Manuel Valls en Nouvelle‑Calédonie : fin de week‑end à Maré avant d’entamer les négociations politiques en conclave à Deva”, La 1ère (Franceinfo), May 4, 2025; “French Minister Valls Wants All Parties to ‘Take Their Responsibilities’ Ahead of Third Trip to New Caledonia,” Islands Business, April 29, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia Talks on Political Future Continue,” RNZ, May 5, 2025.
