New Caledonia: Pro-independence FLNKS likely focused on local elections and 31 March Paris vote

On 24 February, French Senators voted to adopt the constitutional amendments necessary to implement the Bougival and Élysée-Oudinot Accords regarding New Caledonia’s political future. On 31 March, debate for the bill will begin in France’s lower house, the National Assembly. The final step is a joint session of the two houses, known as Congress, where a two thirds majority is needed to pass the amendments.

Assessment: Reaction from the pro-independence group, FLNKS, has been light following the vote. The Senate was expected to support the legislation. However, National Assembly parties on both the left and right have stated opposition to the amendments in their current form. It is likely that FLNKS is focusing political energy on New Caledonia’s municipal elections over 15 ans 22 March and the two later National Assembly and Congress votes. Small FLNKS protests are likely around the 31 March date, particularly if FLNKS does well during the local municipal elections. These protests are also likely to be contained by the increased French security presence and remain localised.

Sources: James C. Pearce, “Pro-independence Camp Nixes French Senate-Adopted ‘State of New Caledonia,’” Pacific Island Times, February 28, 2026; Lizzie Carboni, “Nouvelle-Calédonie : le projet de loi constitutionnelle adopté par le Sénat,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, February 25, 2026; Patrick Decloitre, “French Senate Votes on New Caledonia’s Future Status,” RNZ, February 26, 2026.