New Caledonia: Pro-independence party Union Calédonienne’s focus on peaceful dialogue and local elections likely indicates decreased youth support

At a meeting on 30 January, the Union Calédonienne (UC) reiterated its rejection of the recent Élyseé-Oudinot Accord but also confirmed it remains committed to peaceful dialogue. According to media reporting, in addition to sovereignty negotiations, the March 2026 municipal elections are a high UC priority. UC’s general secretary noted that increasing youth participation is a major objective. 

Assessment: UC’s objective to increase youth participation is likely an acknowledgement that they no longer hold the same level of youth support as during the 2024 unrest. Infrequent protests over late 2025 have drawn crowds of less than 200 people. Therefore, continued dialogue is highly likely the only option UC (and pro-independence umbrella organisation FLNKS, as FLNKS’ largest party) has to remain engaged in the political settlement process with Paris. A significant mobilisation effort would be required by FLNKS to stage a stability threatening protest action, an effort that would provide clear indicators and warning ahead of time. The municipal elections to be held over 15 and 22 March will also indicate relative levels of support for each party and their approaches to independence.

Sources: Lizzi Cardoni and Ismaël Waka-Céou, “L’Union calédonienne est prête à poursuivre un dialogue sincère et pacifique,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 26 January 2026; Marion Thellier and Stéphanie Chenais, “Emmanuel Tjibaou reste à la tête de l'Union calédonienne,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 26 January 2026; Charlotte Mannevy, “Avenir de la Nouvelle-Calédonie: que dit l’accord de Kanaky proposé par le FLNKS,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 3 February 2026; Brigitte Whaap and Valentin Deleforterie, “Environ 200 personnes mobilisées contre le report des provinciales à Nouméa à l’appel du FLNKS,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 31 October 2025.