New Caledonia: Progress on political future unlikely until after provincial elections to be held before 28 June

21 Apr

On 7 and 10 April, meetings were held between French Prime Minister Lecornu, and New Caledonia’s political representatives on the way forward for political negotiations concerning the territory’s future. According to several media reports, the focus has been on whether to unfreeze the electoral role, a move pro-independence groups argue will dilute the indigenous vote and was the central driver of the May 2024 riots. While the pro-independence umbrella group FLNKS have taken part in the PM’s talks (they had previously refused to participate in progressing the existing accords) pro-France groups refused to talk collectively, forcing the PM to hold multiple bilateral sessions. The provincial elections, which the government and some political parties were seeking to delay, remain scheduled to take place before 28 June.

Assessment: It is unlikely that substantial progress will be made on the existing Accords, particularly as PM Lecornu faces difficulty passing legislation on other domestic issues. All New Caledonian political actors will focus on the provincial elections to take place no later than 28 June, from which a territorial government will be formed (New Caledonia’s government is taken from a proportional representation of all elected parties rather than a single party). Serious discussions with the French Government regarding the territory’s future will begin again after the government formation.

Sources: Franc̜oise Tromeur, ““On y va par étapes”, ce nouveau rendez-vous sur l’avenir de la Calédonie,”La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, April 9, 2026; Théo Rouby, “Le Monde évoque les trois scénarios présentés par Sébastien Lecornu aux représentants politiques calédoniens,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, April 15, 2026; Natacha Lassauce-Cognard and Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Pour le dépu té Nicolas Metzdorf, “ça serait une faute politique majeure d'organiser des provinciales avec un corps électoral gelé"”, La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, April 20, 2026; Nic Maclellan, “Tjibaou declares Bougival dead,” Islands Business, April 11, 2026.