New Caledonia: Progress or pause on New Caledonia’s political future to be decided at Prime Minister’s meeting beginning 7 April

On 2 April, the French parliament’s lower house voted to reject the legislation needed to progress the Bougival and Élysée-Oudinot Accords (BEO Accords) regarding New Caledonia’s political future. 190 members of parliament from both sides of the political spectrum voted to support the rejection and 107 voted for it to proceed. The legislation has been sent back to the French Senate (upper house) to rework the text they initially passed on 24 February. France’s Prime Minister met with all BEO signatories on 7 April to determine the next steps. Union Calédonienne, the largest member of the pro-independence group FLNKS, who have previously rejected BEO outright and have been supporting opposition in Paris, participated in the meeting while some pro-France groups did not. 

Assessment: One of two scenarios are likely to emerge from the PM’s meeting beginning on 7 April. The legislation could remain within the Senate to be re-worked to gain the support of some parties in the lower house. A key issue is the unfreezing of the voter role, an issue FLNKS opposes and was seen as the trigger for the May 2024 riots. The alternate scenario would be for the Senate to pause the legislation and allow New Caledonia’s provincial elections to go ahead before 28 June. Provincial elections were originally to take place in December 2024, but have been repeatedly delayed in favour of completing the political reform process. The legislation rejected by the lower house included a clause to delay the elections further, until after a local referendum on the BEO Accords. As this is the second time the reform legislation has been voted down in the French parliament, and FLNKS recently underperformed in the March municipal elections, a pause to the legislative reform in favour of increasing majority support in June provincial elections may be more likely favoured by the French Government.

Sources: Valentin Deleforterie and Charlotte Mestre, “‘Vouloir toucher au corps électoral sans négociation institutionnelle, ça veut dire qu’on n’apprend rien de mai 2024,’ estime le député Emmanuel Tjibaou,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, April 6, 2026; “La réforme constitutionnelle du statut de la Nouvelle-Calédonie balayée par la motion de rejet d’Emmanuel Tjibaou,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, April 2, 2026; Brigitte Whaap,  “Quelles perspectives pour le processus de Bougival à la veille du rendez-vous entre les signataires et le Premier ministre?” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, April 5, 2026; Patrick Delcoitre, “New Caledonia’s Constitutional Reform Rejected by French National Assembly,” RNZ, April 3, 2026; Brigitte Whaap, Carawiane Carawiane, Ambre Lefeivre, Laïd Berritane, and Françoise Tromeur, “Une drôle de séquence politique entre Sébastien Lecornu et les partenaires calédoniens,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, April 7, 2026.