Papua New Guinea: Defence treaty almost certain to pass its final step in parliament

On 6 October, the prime ministers of Papua New Guinea and Australia signed a mutual defence treaty, also known as the Pukpuk Treaty. Major provisions require both nations to act together in the event of an armed attack on one, and for personnel to be recruited into each other's defence forces. Later on 6 October, PM Marape indicated that PNG would likely remain neutral in any conflict between Australia and China, and that he expects PNG’s economic relationship with China to continue.

Assessment: The treaty is almost certain to be ratified by PNG’s parliament, the last step in the process. Opposition members of PNG’s parliament and several former senior defence leaders have expressed opposition to the treaty, claiming it reduces PNG’s sovereignty, undermines its neutrality in strategic competition by siding with the West, and will affect economic opportunities with China. While this vocal opposition from individuals is likely to continue up to the treaty’s debate in parliament, PM Marape attained his cabinet’s endorsement on 1 October, and is almost certain to have the numbers in parliament for it to pass.

Sources: Stephen Dziedzic, “Australia, PNG sign defence treaty of mutual alliance,” ABC News, October 6, 2025; Patrick Bell, “PNG may sit out Australia-China conflict despite defence pact,” ABC News, October 6, 2025.