Region: Five to nine tropical cyclones predicted over 2025-2026 season

Written By Paul Prouse

As of 16 October, Earth Sciences New Zealand has predicted five to nine tropical cycles (TCs) in the South Pacific over the upcoming November 2025 to April 2026 season. Two to four of those are estimated to be severe, reaching category 3 or higher. Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and New Zealand are at a higher level of risk than the remainder of the region. Historically, nine TCs occur on average during a season, and are more likely from February to March when ocean water is at its warmest. 

Assessment: Category 3 winds range from 126-165km/h, and Category 5 exceeds 226. High winds over these categories are expected to damage and destroy roofs and buildings, particularly in the South Pacific where structures are less resilient. Heavy rain can cause storm surges, high tides, and flooding.

Number of tropical cyclones forecast per country from November 2025-April 2026.

Source:Earth Sciences New Zealand

Source: “Tropical Cyclone Outlook: Southwest Pacific 25/26,” Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA), 16 October 2025.

Paul Prouse
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