Papua New Guinea: Increasing drought pressures likely to increase internal migration and cause urban tension

On 19 June, unusual frost and water loss was reported in the Highlands' provinces causing crop loss. Around 23 June, Prime Minister Marape outlined that financial and administrative support was being considered in preparation for an El Niño National Strategy, with the National Weather Service making an El Niño Declaration three days later on 26 June. Later, around 30 July, market stall holders in Port Moresby reported that their supply of root vegetables from the Highlands (kaukau and potatoes) had decreased by half, subsequently doubling the cost at market. Highlands farmers reported significant difficulty with this season's growing and shortages of other basic root crops. Other provinces have increasingly reported shortages and various levels of response. Around 3 August, health services in Simbu Province were reduced to critical care only — emergency care, maternal, child, and outpatient services — due to water and food scarcity. Around 7 August, Western Province noted Lake Murray had dropped by 2m along with other creeks and water bodies, making water transport increasingly difficult — an issue compounded by higher fuel costs. Some Western Province residents have reportedly abandoned homes in search of food and water. Around 20 August, the Governor of Western Highlands Province stated the dry season was currently "on another scale," noting drinking water and aquaculture sources were drying up. Port Moresby residents have also been warned load-shedding would continue over the next 10 months due to low hydropower generation. Meanwhile, around 15 July, PM Marape told government leaders that local government should not expect endless central government funds and to prioritise existing funds. Throughout July and August, Hela Province authorities have dug bore holes, acquired and operated water trucks, issued emergency funds and said all finances will be directed to the emergency response if necessary.

Assessment: While security issues in PNG often remain localised, prolonged drought and its effects on food and water security are likely to become a larger national issue as El Niño continues to develop through to April 2027. There are already indications of rural households and communities moving from their land to urban areas in search of food as well as health services and employment. PM Marape's direction to local governments to address problems with their own funds following consideration of a national strategy correctly identifies that local leaders are best placed to understand local environmental impacts. However, it also illustrates the compounding pressure of concurrently supporting fuel subsidies. Tension in provincial urban areas and the capital between local residents and "outsiders" is likely to escalate over the next 6 months.

Sources: “On another scale’: PNG province unprepared for El Niño impacts, governor warns,” republished in PACNEWS, 20 August 2026;  “PNG Police minister warns of law and order risks during El Nino,” PACNEWS, 12 August 2026; “Simbu health services scaled down as El Nin͂o affects water and essential supplies,” NBC, 4 August 2026; “Drought biting into root crops, affecting supply,” The National, 30 July 2026; “El Nin͂o conditions hit Highlands. Drought-indiced conditions threaten food security,” The National, 19 June 2026; Asanga Divulweva, “When the Highlands Turned White: How El Niño Is Pushing Papua New Guinea Toward a Major Food Crisis,” Commonwealth Union, 26 June 2026; “PNG PM directs nationwide preparedness as EL Nino threatens prolonged dry season,” PACNEWS, 23 June 2026; “Marape urges MPs to use existing funds for El Nino response,” NBC, 15 July 2026.