Papua New Guinea: Priorities, finance, and transport almost certainly ongoing obstacles to timely El Niño relief, while Port Moresby power and water rationing almost certain to increase in November.

Around 7 October, the PNG Government declared that 15 of its 22 provinces were facing extreme drought, with a further five under severe drought. (The remaining two, Bougainville and Madang, had yet to submit self-assessments.) Since June, El Niño has been affecting several areas of PNG, including water shortages, wildfire, and crop loss from unusual frost and hail. The National Capital District and Central Province are assessed as extreme. On 29 September, load-shedding was increased in the capital from 2 to 4-hour rotations. On 7 October, PNG Power Limited (PPL) stated that the Sirinumu Dam – which provides Port Moresby water for both hydropower and drinking – is currently at 53% capacity and is decreasing by 10% every 10 days. PPL further advised that power generation will cease once the dam reaches 20% in order to ensure drinking water supply. Over 14–18 October, officials in Western Province requested support from the Australian government to assist with transporting relief to remote communities, while Manus Province officials made a separate request to Australian and commercial entities for support fighting wildfires.

Assessment: Since July, Prime Minister Marape has advised provinces that they must manage their local conditions and not expect ongoing national government support or handouts. While local government authorities will better understand local conditions, the central government has also outlaid significant expenditure on fuel disruption subsidies since March, and is also undergoing a legislative process to expand its ten-person National Disaster Centre into an emergency management authority of centralised response agencies. Prioritisation, finance, and transport to remote communities will almost certainly remain major obstacles to timely interventions by the PNG Government as El Niño strengthens and continues through to April 2027. Regarding the capital's water, dam levels will likely reach 20% between 8 November and 7 January without rainfall. Around 50% of the capital's power generation is through gas turbines; therefore, power rationing is almost certain to increase – likely beyond 12-hour rotations – in the capital and Central Province until drought conditions begin to improve around March–April 2027. The lack of power and water is highly likely to increase crime, including group violence, over November 2026–April 2027.

Sources: “Relief supplies reach North Fly as dry spell worsens,” NBC, 17 October 2026; “Eight families homeless after bushfire in Chuave,” NBC, 18 October 2026; “Bush fire threatens Lou Island villages in Manus,” NBC, 18 October 2026; “No power if water at 20 percent,” NBC, 7 October 2026; “El Nino affects power supply,” NBC, 6 October 2026; “Hailstorm affects parts of Pilikambi in Enga province,” NBC, 8 October 2026; “Marape urges MPs to use existing funds for El Nino response,” NBC, 15 July 2026; “El Nin͂o conditions hit Highlands. Drought-indiced conditions threaten food security,” The National, 19 June 2026; “El Niño drought now a national humanitarian emergency,” PNG Bulletin, 7 October 2026.