Region: Concern, reassurance over economic stability will remain dominant regional reaction to US, Israel, Iran conflict; public support for Israel absent despite recent increased diplomatic efforts

Since the beginning of the US, Israel, and Iran conflict on 28 February, official government spokespeople from Fiji and Vanuatu have maintained a neutral stance and called for a return to dialogue. Over 3-4 March, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister Marape also called for an amicable truce, while his Foreign Minister noted PNG had supported US and Israeli counter-terrorism and nuclear disarmament efforts “since day one.” The PNG and Vanuatu Governments also offered public reassurance that the flow on effects of high oil prices will be monitored and managed through subsidies, transported redistribution within PNG, and the subsistence economy in Vanuatu. Regional academics and business leaders also emphasised concern that global fuel disruption will translate to higher electricity, transport, and food costs. In Guam and PNG, retired senior defence officials noted an elevated risk to US military infrastructure hosted on their territory, with the PNG former officials publicly questioning whether planned US and Australian investment and use of defence facilities should continue.

Assessment: The likelihood of economic hardship is the dominant narrative in government and public reaction to the new Middle East conflict. Both note that energy reserves are currently sufficient but the longer the conflict lasts, the more likely and more acute inflation and follow on effects in the transport, electricity, and food sectors will be - these effects will likely eventuate in 90-120 days as oil reserves are depleted. Government messages of reassurance and contingency financial and logistics planning reflect a focus on domestic stability likely learned through the COVID-19 response. Notably, despite increased diplomatic relations with Israel from several Pacific states, no leader has issued a statement of support aside from PNG’s Foreign Minister. The neutral statements or silence reflect the region’s broader stance to avoid geopolitical competition and to maintain commitment to the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace – a regional initiative led by Fiji’s PM Rabuka since 2023 and formalised as a Declaration by the Pacific Islands Forum in 2025.

Sources: (select) Jayvee Vallejera, “In China’s Crosshairs, Guam Civilians Are Sitting Ducks in an Aerial Attack,” Pacific Island Times, March 5, 2026; Mark Rabago, “CNMI Leaders Divided over US-Israel Strikes on Iran,” RNZ, March 5, 2026; Nicholas Mwai, “Iran Conflict May Affect Vanuatu Economy,” Vanuatu Daily Post, March 6, 2026; Loreleï Aubry, “L’inflation importée pourrait se faire sentir d’ici deux mois, conséquence de la guerre au Moyen-Orient selon l’universitaire Gaël Lagadec,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, March 7, 2026; Nathan Woti, “PNG Has Sufficient Fuel Supply, an Official Says,” The National, March 6, 2026; Josefa Sigavolavola, “Fiji Has Ample Fuel for Now, Says Finance Minister,” FBC, March 6, 2026; “PNG Remains Exposed to Middle East Conflict; Former Military Strategists Urge Government to Be Neutral,” The National, March 4, 2026; Johnny Blades, “Papua New Guinea Seeks Help for Citizens in Middle East, Supports US-Israel Attack on Iran,” RNZ, March 3, 2026; Anish Chand, “Fiji Calls for Restraint, Dialogue amid Rising Middle East Tensions,” The Fiji Times, March 2, 2026.