West Papua: Escalating violence likely to continue, including hostage taking and threats to business operations
Between 31 January and 11 February, reports from West Papua outline disputed security incidents involving Indonesian forces and Papuan armed groups. On 11 February, the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) shot down a Cessna aircraft in Boven Digoel, killing the pilot and co-pilot. A separate attack targeted another aircraft in Mimika near the Grasberg mine. Reports from additional non-governmental groups – the United Liberation Movement for West Papua and Human Rights Defenders – allege that Indonesian military operations in Kembru District, Puncak Regency, involved drone strikes near villages and refugee sites, displacing civilians into the forest, and that a civilian was killed in Sugapa District. Indonesian authorities denied air strikes on civilians, claimed residents had been evacuated for safety, and attributed violence to an “armed criminal group”.
Assessment: The incidents indicate increased military activity in West Papua following threats to the Indonesian Vice President’s aircraft around 14 January and a hostage taking incident around the same date by West Papuan armed groups. (see SPI #39, dated 14-27 January). A near-term resolution of the West Papua–Indonesia dispute is unlikely. Limited media access and the absence of public statements from Pacific leaders reduces the likelihood of external pressure or intervention. Government military action, and West Papuan reprisals against aircraft and businesses operating in the area, including hostage taking of foreigners, are highly likely to continue.
Sources: “Confusion over West Papua bombing, displacement claims, as shooting of pilots confirmed,” RNZ, 17 February 2026, “Papuan activist leader Wenda accuses Jakarta of ‘lying’ over shot down plane,” INFOPAPUA, 20 February 2026; “URGENT | CIVILIANS FORCED TO FLEE AGAIN IN KEMBRU, PUNCAK,” Facebook, 7 February 2026.
West Papua: Location of incidents over 31 January and 11 February 2026. The Cessna was shot down in the eastern ring, while all other incidents took place in the western ring.
