Region: Security agreements advance Australia's objective of building a legal regional security architecture to constrain China's influence

Between 1–8 July 2026, Australia signed and implemented a series of bilateral security agreements with Vanuatu, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea, expanding defence and strategic cooperation across the South Pacific. On 1 July, Australia and Vanuatu signed the Nakamal Agreement, strengthening cooperation on policing, maritime security, intelligence, cybersecurity, disaster response, climate resilience, workforce development, and mobility, while Vanuatu committed to prohibiting foreign military bases. On 6 July, Australia and Fiji signed the Vuvale Union Treaty, expanding cooperation on security, the economy, and people-to-people ties, as well as the Ocean of Peace Alliance, a mutual defence treaty requiring consultation on security threats and mutual assistance in response to armed attacks in the Pacific; the alliance is open to other Pacific states to join. On 8 July, the Pukpuk Treaty entered into force, formally establishing the Australia–PNG alliance through mutual defence commitments, expanded defence cooperation, and reciprocal military recruitment.

Separately, on 6 July, China test-launched a ballistic missile with a dummy warhead into the South Pacific from a nuclear-powered submarine, with the missile landing 1,900 kilometres north-west of Samoa, near the boundary of Tuvalu's exclusive economic zone. Beijing described the launch as routine training, stated that it complied with international law including advanced notification, and was not directed at any country. The launch occurred hours after Australia and Fiji signed the Ocean of Peace mutual defence agreement while a Chinese space tracking vessel was alongside in Suva. Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu have all publicly criticised the missile test.

Assessment: The signing of security agreements with Vanuatu, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea advances Australia's objective of building a legal regional security architecture to constrain China's security presence in the South Pacific. The missile launch was almost certainly intended to send multiple messages to several audiences in the Pacific region. The requirement to pre-position space tracking vessels also means that the strategic communication is meant to target events and trends planned in advance, rather than a reaction to a singular recent event only. It is unlikely that the missile test was intended to prevent Fiji from signing the Vuvale Union Treaty and Ocean of Peace Alliance, but it was likely intended to signal to all Pacific countries to be cautious about formally choosing sides opposed to China. It is almost certain that the test was primarily intended to provide a strategic communication disruption to the countries participating in the US-led Exercise RIMPAC 2026, taking place in Hawai'i over 24 June–31 July.

Sources: “China test fires missile into Pacific, alarming regional powers,” Reuters, 6 July 2026; “China tests long-range missile in South Pacific in move Australia condemns as ‘destabilising to region’,” Guardian, 6 July 2026; “China test-launches a ballistic missile in the South Pacific and raises regional concerns,” NPR, 7 July 2026; Sulamanaia Manaui Faulalo, “Chinese missile splashes 1900km from Samoa,” Samoa Observer, 7 July 2026