Region: Taiwan diplomatic visit to reassure allies likely to draw verbal response from Beijing

The President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is expected to visit the Marshall Islands, Palau and Tuvalu from 30 November to 6 December. The three countries are Taiwan’s last remaining allies in the South Pacific after Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru switched their recognition to Beijing between 2019 and 2024.

Assessment: While President Lai Ching-te’s visit is likely to elicit verbal opposition from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), there is almost no risk of these three countries switching recognition away from Taiwan. Palau and Marshall Islands are linked to the United States through the Compact of Free Association, where the US has military basing rights in exchange for financial and other support. Palau’s newly elected President is seeking US military expansion and has publicly attacked PRC attempts to increase influence on the island. Meanwhile, Tuvalu’s 2024 Filipeli Union treaty with Australia has a mechanism whereby Tuvalu and Australia must both agree before Tuvalu enters into any arrangement with a third party. The President’s visit is likely as much about signalling Taiwan’s international relevance to the Taiwanese domestic population as it is about ongoing engagement with the three countries.

Sources: “Taiwan's president to strengthen ties with Pacific allies during upcoming visit,” RNZ, November 27, 2024; Ben Westcott, "Pacific Island Palau Says China Is Pressing for Taiwan Switch," Talanoa o Tonga, November 2, 2024.