Tonga: Prime Minister ‘Aisake Eke likely to retain premiership
On 20 November, Tonga held general elections for its 26-member Parliament, comprising 17 People’s Representatives and nine Noble Representatives. At the end of the election, the nine Noble Representatives were announced with two newly elected; Lords Maʻafu and Veʻehala for Tongatapu and ‘Eua. Incumbent Prime Minister ʻAisake Eke and former PM Siaosi Sovaleni retained their seats among the People’s Representatives. Speaker of Parliament, Lord Fakafanua, Deputy PM, Dr Taniela Fusimalohi, PM Eke and Siaosi Sovaleni have all declared their intention to run for premiership. Semisi Sika, the newly re-elected MP for Tongatapu 2, stated during an interview that Tonga’s next prime minister should come from the People’s Representatives, not the nobles. A formal election writ will be returned to King Tupou VI on 4 December, with a new prime minister expected before Christmas. The Prime Minister is elected by the elected members of parliament.
Assessment: The prospects for each of the four PM candidates indicates Eke is likely to retain his role despite MP’s views on his handling of the incumbent Police Minister’s abuse of powers incident (see SPI #34, 5-18 November 2025):
Former Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni is unlikely to return to the premiership after tension with King Tupou VI led to a no-confidence motion against him in December 2024.
Electing Speaker Lord Fakafanua as prime minister would likely raise concerns about increased royal influence in government.
Dr Taniela Fusimalohi is also seen as an unlikely contender due to no public profile.
Sources: 'Alakihihifo Vailala, “Eke and Sovaleni leave PM bids to Parliament as Tonga heads to polls,” PMN, November 19, 2025; Teuila Fuatai, “Tonga election: Polls open for voters to elect new Legislative Assembly,” RNZ, November 19, 2025; Teuila Fuatai, “Tonga election: Nine noble seats decided,” RNZ, November 20, 2025; “Polls now closed, awaiting results for people’s seats,” Talanoa o Tonga, November 20, 2025; 'Alakihihifo Vailala, “Tonga’s next PM hangs in the balance as King ends visit to China,” PMN, November 27, 2025.
