New Caledonia: 8 December Congressional vote will indicate whether Bougival referendum to go ahead in March 2026

2 Dec

On 21 November, France’s Minister for Overseas publicly announced a referendum on the original Bougival Agreement will occur on 15 March 2026. The formal bill must still be passed by France’s parliament in early January. The pro-independence group, FLNKS, has issued statements claiming that the French Government is acting unilaterally, while simultaneously ordering party preparations for municipal elections occurring on the same March date. Three senior government officials arrived in New Caledonia on 24 November to negotiate support amongst the parties for Bougival. On 8 December, the territory’s Congress will provide their official opinion on the referendum bill to Paris after hearing the senior officials’ findings. Three other Congressional parties have voiced initial opposition to the referendum bill due to the absence of FLNKS.

Assessment: FLNKS has previously been alone in opposition to the Bougival Agreement. The senior officials and other congressional members will be in deep discussion through the coming week to reach a consensus. The 8 December congressional debate, though non-binding on the bill’s January vote in Paris, will indicate how permanent the other three parties are in their opposition - their issue being FLNKS participation rather than the Bougival Agreement itself. If the congress votes positively, FLNKS are likely to continue public statements in opposition to Bougival but will focus on campaigning for “no” votes rather than protest action. A possible outcome will be no support for the March referendum in favour of more time for political negotiation.

Sources: Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Bougival: le FLNKS dénonce “une consultation improvisée, juridiquement bancale et dénuée de toute légitimité démocratique”,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 24 November 2025; Brigitte Whaap and Charlotte Mestre, “Après son comité directeur, l’Union calédonienne en ordre de marche pour faire échec à Bougival,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 26 November 2025; Valentin Deleforterie, “Accord de Bougival : que contient le projet de loi organisant la consultation des Calédoniens ?” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 21 November 2025; Théo Rouby, “Trois hauts fonctionnaires attendus lundi en Nouvelle-Calédonie pour tenter de sauver Bougival,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 29 November 2025; Linda Saci, “J’ai l’impression qu’il faut absolument sauver Bougival” — déplore Joël Kasarherou, fondateur du mouvement Construire Autrement,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 1 December 2025; Théo Rouby, “Le Congrès reporte l’examen du projet de loi visant à organiser la consultation sur l’accord de Bougival,” La 1ʳᵉ / Franceinfo, 1 December 2025.