Vanuatu: Government highly likely to continue a hedging strategy between China and traditional partners
On 7 May, Vanuatu's Council of Ministers endorsed a revised version of the Nakamal Agreement with Australia. The original draft had remained unsigned since September 2025, due to provisions that Vanuatu Prime Minister Jotham Napat described as undermining Vanuatu's sovereignty and limiting its access to assistance. According to media reporting, the revised agreement preserves Australia's role as Vanuatu's principal security partner while permitting continued engagement on infrastructure, social, and economic issues with other states, including China. The agreement is pending final approval by the Australian government. Media reporting also indicated the Nakamal Agreement had stalled due to Chinese influence within the Vanuatu Government, including reports in mid-April of a proposed bilateral "Namele Agreement." Both PM Napat and the Chinese Embassy stated this was "a comprehensive development cooperation agreement" and not a security agreement. Despite no formal security agreement with China, reporting since September 2025 indicates China has increased support to the Vanuatu Police Force. Assessment: Vanuatu is likely to continue pursuing a hedging strategy that balances its security partnership with Australia with accepting assistance from China. The revisions to the Nakamal Agreement indicate Vanuatu was able to secure concessions from Australia after objecting to provisions it saw as constraining its sovereign decision-making and external relationships. The updated agreement reflects Vanuatu's likely preference for strategic autonomy while attempting to avoid overdependence on any single foreign power.
Sources: “Vanuatu's cabinet approves new version of Nakamal Agreement with Australia,” ABC, 11 May 2026; Stephen Dziedzic and Lilyrose Welwel, “Vanuatu's cabinet approves new version of Nakamal Agreement with Australia,” Daily Post, May 13, 2026; Anna Naupa, “Between backyards and nakamals: Shifting Australia–Vanuatu relations,” Lowy Institute, 17 May 2026.
