New Caledonia: Pro-independence, pro-France, and Government groups seek to re-balance power during 28 June elections, ahead of renewed negotiations

On 7 May, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu formally announced New Caledonia's provincial elections will occur on 28 June. It was also announced that law changes would be sought in the French parliament on 20 May to expand the electoral roll and include native-born citizens. Provincial elections also elect the territory's Congress; the last elections occurred in 2019 and have been delayed multiple times since 2024 due to the May 2024 riots. Following the announcements, the pro-independence FLNKS committed to the elections but re-stated its opposition to an expanded electorate beyond native-born citizens, while some pro-France parties stated the expansion did not go far enough – a previous attempt to expand the roll is seen as the primary trigger of the 2024 riots. Meanwhile, on 12 May, the pro-independence Palika party declared it would no longer support the in-negotiation Bougival and Élysée-Oudinot Accords (BEO) and that its aim in the provincial elections was to rebalance political power for fresh post-election negotiations. On 16 May, the four main pro-France parties announced they would contest two of the three provinces as a joint group.

Assessment: All key groups – pro-independence, pro-France, and the French Government – almost certainly see the provincial elections as an opportunity to rebalance political power and leverage ahead of post-election negotiations on the territory's political future. PM Lecornu stated on 18 May that negotiations would recommence in July with the intent to conclude before they become a campaign issue in the April 2027 French presidential election. Palika's withdrawal from BEO realigns them more closely with FLNKS and will mitigate Government and loyalist hopes that FLNKS' electoral support would continue to diminish, as seen in the March municipal elections. A loyalist surge is unlikely to allow the Government to forcibly continue BEO without FLNKS; loyalist victories in the Northern and Southern Provinces is instead likely to see the pro-independence groups who had previously supported the BEO Accords realign with FLNKS and argue for stronger steps toward independence and protection of Kanak identity. Negotiations between pro-independence groups on a joint election campaign are also likely.

Sources: Angela Palmieri, Carawiane Carawiane, Cédric Michaut, and Marie-Gwenaelle Gohe, “Ouverture du corps électoral largement insuffisante” pour les Loyalistes, “passage en force de l’État" pour le FLNKS : les annonces autour des provinciales loin de faire l'unanimité,” Nouvelle-calédonie la 1ère, 7 May 2026; Françoise Tromeur and Carawiane Carawiane, “Les provinciales annoncées le 28 juin, avec un corps électoral élargi aux natifs et conjoints,” Nouvelle-calédonie la 1ère, 7 May 2026; Théo Rouby, “Palika is engaging in the provincial elections to better prepare for “independence in partnership”,” Nouvelle-calédonie la 1ère, 12 May 2026; Angela Palmieri, Carawiane Carawiane, and Théo Rouby, “Provincial elections: the FLNKS launches its campaign and wants to "change the rules of the game" in the South Province,” Nouvelle-calédonie la 1ère, 15 May 2026; Mathieu Ruiz Barraud, “"Ce qui nous rassemble est bien plus fort que ce qui nous différencie”, Les Loyalistes et le Rassemblement feront liste commune aux provinciales,” Nouvelle-calédonie la 1ère, 15 May 2026; “ÉLECTIONS PROVINCIALES DU 28 JUIN 2026 LE CHOIX DE L’INTÉRÊT GÉNÉRAL : CELUI DE L’UNION,” Les Loyalistes, Facebook, 16 May 2026.